国金证券：农业投资重视涨价品种 看好生猪行业盈利提升

Group 1: Agricultural Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on price-driven sectors such as beef and grain, where price increases indicate improved profitability [1] - Policy reforms on the supply side are expected to accelerate the breeding sector's cycle and enhance average industry profits after capacity stabilizes [1] - The demand recovery in the breeding sector is anticipated to drive sales growth due to improved absolute stock levels [1] - External disturbances are likely to increase risk-averse demand [1] Group 2: Livestock Sector Insights - In the beef sector, prices have started to rise after a period of losses, with an expected industry capacity reduction of over 10% [1] - The dairy sector is projected to see accelerated capacity reduction starting in 2025, with prices expected to rise in 2026 due to ongoing capacity declines [1] - The pig farming industry is expected to enter a low-profit phase in 2025, with supply-side policies driving proactive capacity reduction [2] Group 3: Poultry Sector Analysis - The yellow-feathered chicken market has seen weak prices but is expected to recover as demand improves [3] - The white-feathered chicken supply remains high, with expectations for demand recovery as upstream breeding gaps are addressed [3] Group 4: Broader Agricultural Trends - The recovery in livestock farming is expected to boost sales, with leading companies actively pursuing growth strategies [4] - Grain prices are anticipated to stabilize this year, influenced by external factors such as U.S.-China relations, weather disturbances, and geopolitical conflicts [4]