万亿资金腾挪的背后，泛红利ETF的喜忧参半

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese ETF market is undergoing a significant transformation from 2024 to April 2025, with the total scale of non-monetary ETFs increasing from 1.85 trillion yuan at the end of 2023 to 3.89 trillion yuan, marking a 110% growth [1]. ETF Market Scale Changes - The ETF market is experiencing a shift in dominance from individual investors to institutional investors, with institutional holdings in stock ETFs reaching 62.14% and in bond ETFs reaching 84.90% [4]. - State-owned institutions and insurance companies are the main contributors to this growth, with state-owned holdings increasing by 922.4 billion yuan to 1.05 trillion yuan in the second half of 2024, and insurance funds increasing by 113.2 billion yuan to 260.7 billion yuan [4]. Institutional Preferences - Institutions are actively investing in core broad-based ETFs, with a total increase of 866.8 billion yuan in 300 ETFs and 500 ETFs, accounting for 59.3% of total inflows into stock ETFs [5]. - There is a strong preference for high-dividend assets among institutions, driven by the challenges of low interest rates, with the total market size of dividend-themed index funds reaching 173.55 billion yuan, an increase of 20.09 billion yuan from the end of 2024 [6]. Insurance Capital Activity - Insurance capital has been particularly active in acquiring dividend assets, with 16 instances of stake increases in listed companies, focusing on sectors like banking, utilities, energy, and logistics [9]. - Ping An Life has been notably active, making six acquisitions in Hong Kong-listed bank stocks, becoming a key player in this market [9]. Dividend ETF Characteristics - The main dividend index sectors are characterized by essential or monopolistic attributes, such as energy, resources, telecommunications, and utilities, benefiting from national policy incentives [10]. - Despite the growth in dividend ETFs, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of returns, as over 50% of the 56.32% return from the dividend low-volatility index in 2023-2024 came from the banking and coal sectors [11]. Market Outlook - The resilience of dividend assets has been highlighted, with both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing a favorable trend in dividend style since March [11]. - Future expectations suggest that while growth styles may dominate, dividend styles will exhibit a higher probability of success due to their high dividend yields and low volatility [11].