Core Viewpoint - The initial public offering (IPO) of Cao Cao Travel on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange faced significant challenges, with the stock price dropping by 20.24% on its first day, indicating market skepticism about the company's financial health and growth prospects [2][4][6] Financial Performance - Cao Cao Travel's global offering consisted of 44.1786 million shares, priced at HKD 41.94 per share, with a pre-IPO decline of over 13% in the dark market [2] - The company reported cumulative losses exceeding CNY 5.2 billion over the past three years, with an average daily loss of CNY 4.86 million [4] - By the end of 2024, total liabilities are projected to reach CNY 11.283 billion, with net current liabilities of CNY 8.146 billion and cash equivalents of only CNY 159 million, indicating a liquidity gap of over CNY 5.5 billion [4] Revenue and Market Position - Revenue forecasts for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are CNY 7.631 billion, CNY 10.7 billion, and CNY 14.7 billion, respectively, with the majority of revenue coming from ride-hailing services [3] - In the ride-hailing market, Didi holds a dominant market share of 70.4%, while Cao Cao Travel only accounts for 5.4%, facing competition from T3 Travel and Xiangdao Travel [5] Business Model and Challenges - The company's heavy asset model leads to high operational costs, including driver subsidies and vehicle depreciation, which hinder rapid scale expansion [5] - In 2024, 85.7% of orders are expected to come from aggregation platforms like Gaode and Baidu, resulting in a loss of bargaining power and exposure to revenue fluctuations due to potential changes in platform strategies [5] Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - The poor performance of Cao Cao Travel's stock on its debut reflects broader market concerns regarding the profitability and regulatory risks associated with ride-hailing platforms [6] - Despite attracting six cornerstone investors, the low subscription rate among retail investors and significant selling pressure contributed to the stock's decline [5][6]
曹操出行上市即破发，是必然还是偶然？丨商业快评