国金证券：聚焦供需优化与末端赋能 布局航空及直营快递

Group 1: Aviation Sector - The aviation sector is expected to see supply-side growth constraints, with a recommendation to focus on the continuously optimizing supply-demand dynamics [2] - As of 2025, the industry is projected to maintain high single-digit growth in passenger volume, driven by stable economic development and improved visa policies [2] - Supply is limited due to a low number of existing orders and ongoing production issues at Boeing and Airbus, leading to a backlog of over 6,500 and 8,600 aircraft respectively [2] - Demand is anticipated to grow by 7% year-on-year in 2025, with capacity utilization nearing 2019 levels, which will likely lead to increased ticket prices and airline profitability [2] Group 2: Logistics Sector - The logistics sector is focusing on empowering the last-mile delivery, with a recommendation to pay attention to the direct express delivery segment [3] - The application of unmanned logistics vehicles is expected to reduce costs and improve efficiency in last-mile delivery, benefiting direct express delivery companies [3] - SF Express is highlighted as a key player in the direct express delivery market, holding a 64% market share in the time-sensitive segment, targeting mid-to-high-end customers to avoid price competition [3] - The company is expected to achieve higher-than-industry volume growth through operational model transformation and resource optimization, supported by decreasing capital expenditures and increasing cash flow [3]