五年翻倍，黄金还能否继续上涨？

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold prices, driven by increasing global geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, leading to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][8]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of June 24, the spot gold price approached $3,500 per ounce, marking a 26.6% increase year-to-date [1]. - Since 2020, the price of spot gold has doubled, with a total increase of 119.07%, while major global stock indices have shown mixed performance during the same period [4]. - Over the past five years, gold has been the best-performing asset, attracting both institutional and retail investors seeking relative returns amid market volatility [12]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Gold is characterized by extreme scarcity, with only 54,000 tons of economically extractable reserves globally, projected to last approximately 15 years at a production rate of 3,661 tons in 2024 [5]. - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with total demand from central banks in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 reaching 450.1 tons, 1,081.9 tons, 1,037.4 tons, and 1,044.6 tons respectively [8]. - China's central bank has been a major buyer, accumulating approximately 32 tons of gold as of May this year [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article suggests that gold will likely maintain high prices in the short term due to ongoing global uncertainties and the historical trend of gold prices rising during economic turmoil [14][17]. - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months [18]. - Analysts predict that gold is entering a new phase of significant price movement, with potential for high volatility and substantial gains in the coming years [22].