尿素：供应保持高位 关注出口政策调整

Core Viewpoint - After a period of continuous decline, international urea prices surged due to geopolitical factors, making domestic exports possible and leading to a significant rebound in the market. However, with domestic export quotas nearly exhausted and weak domestic demand, urea prices have shown a notable decline again. Long-term, the oversupply situation in the domestic market has not fundamentally changed, and future policy adjustments will need to be monitored [1]. Supply Situation - Supply remains at a high level, with the urea industry entering a new capacity expansion cycle in 2025, expected to add nearly 7 million tons of production capacity throughout the year. New production facilities have been launched in the first half of the year, and while daily production has slightly decreased, it still operates at a high level compared to the previous year. As of May 20, daily urea production was 196,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons year-on-year. Additional new facilities are expected to come online in the second half of the year, indicating a continued loose supply situation [4][2]. Demand Dynamics - Demand for urea is expected to increase in 2025, primarily driven by the compound fertilizer industry, melamine industry, and agricultural sector. It is estimated that the compound fertilizer sector will add 5.1 million tons of new capacity, translating to an increase in urea demand of 810,000 tons. The agricultural sector is also expected to see a rise in urea application due to advanced farming techniques. However, the total increase in urea demand for the year is projected to be around 3 million tons, which is significantly lower than the anticipated increase in production capacity. In the short term, demand is notably weak, with the compound fertilizer production for summer nearing completion and other industrial demands also showing weakness [5][4]. Policy Impact - Future policy changes will be crucial in influencing the urea market. Recent surges in international urea prices have exceeded China's previous export limit, making exports feasible. The first batch of 2 million tons of export quotas has been nearly fully allocated, with shipments expected in July and August. The announcement of new export quotas remains pending, and whether these quotas will increase is a key factor affecting the short-term market. If an additional 2 million tons of export quotas are released, it could lead to a significant reduction in inventory by 2025, potentially creating a more optimistic outlook for urea prices. Conversely, if no further export quotas are issued, prices may continue to decline [6][5].