强势回补上方缺口后 沪铅后续走势如何？

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in lead prices is primarily driven by supply constraints and expectations of improved consumption as the traditional peak season approaches [1][2][3][4]. Supply Side Analysis - Supply constraints are a major factor in the recent strength of lead prices, with slow recovery in recycled lead production due to industry losses and raw material shortages [1][2][3]. - The original lead smelting sector is experiencing regular maintenance, which has led to a decrease in inventory levels and supports price increases [4][7]. - The tight supply of waste batteries continues to exert upward pressure on prices, while the profitability of recycled lead remains under pressure, leading to reduced production [4][8]. Demand Side Analysis - The downstream lead-acid battery industry is transitioning from a low-demand season to a peak season, with some companies planning to increase production in anticipation of higher demand [5][6]. - Current consumption in the lead-acid battery market is still subdued, but there are expectations for improvement as summer approaches and replacement demand increases [6][8]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with battery manufacturers considering price adjustments based on current high lead prices, but actual demand recovery remains to be seen [6][7]. Inventory Dynamics - Domestic lead inventory levels have not shown significant accumulation, providing support for lead prices, with expectations of improved consumption in the third quarter [5][8]. - The inventory situation is influenced by supply-side reductions, with recycled lead production cuts leading to lower inventory levels compared to previous years [8][9]. - The market is currently in a state of equilibrium, with supply constraints preventing significant inventory build-up despite weak demand [7][9].