Supply Overview - In April 2025, global zinc mine production reached 1.0722 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 6.4% [1] - From January to April 2025, global zinc mine production totaled 4.0406 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 2% [1] - Major overseas mines reported varying production levels in Q1, with total output from these mines amounting to 869,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 1.5% [1][2] - Domestic zinc concentrate production in Q1 saw a year-on-year increase of 6.42% [1] Demand Overview - In April, global zinc consumption was 1.1302 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 1% and a month-on-month increase of 6% [3] - The downstream consumption index for zinc fell to 56.36% in May, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in demand [3] - The PMI for various downstream industries, including galvanizing and die-casting, showed values below 50, indicating contraction in these sectors [3] Price and Profitability Insights - The main zinc contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange faced pressure at the 23,000 yuan/ton level, with a recent low of 21,660 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic zinc concentrate producers are experiencing significant losses, with import losses reaching up to -572 yuan/ton, leading to a closure of import windows [1][2] - Despite the losses, domestic production profits remain substantial, estimated between 3,900 to 4,600 yuan/ton [1] Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of June 24, LME zinc inventories decreased by 49% year-on-year to 123,000 tons, with a month-on-month decline of 18% [4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's zinc warehouse receipts fell by 91% year-on-year to 7,471 tons, indicating a tightening supply [4] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory stood at 58,400 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7% [4] Future Outlook - The combination of increased global zinc concentrate supply and seasonal demand weakness is expected to suppress zinc prices [5] - However, refining zinc prices may find support from smelting costs, import costs, and ongoing inventory reductions [5] - Potential positive developments in US-China tariff negotiations and a gradual recovery from the consumption off-season could lead to a rebound in zinc prices [5]
锌：冶炼成本支撑 期价伺机待涨
Wen Hua Cai Jing·2025-06-25 09:49