朱太辉：稳定币的经营模式、发展影响与监管框架

Core Insights - The seminar focused on the development trends and policy evolution of global stablecoins, highlighting their operational models, impacts, and regulatory frameworks [1][2]. Group 1: Stablecoin Operational Models and Market Trends - Understanding stablecoins requires examining their technological foundations and operational models, which differentiate them from cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins combine the technological advantages of crypto assets with the value stability of fiat currencies, addressing incentive mechanisms for market participants [1][3]. - Stablecoins have entered a new phase of scaled and compliant development, becoming popular payment tools that integrate with traditional financial systems. The average transaction size of stablecoins has decreased, indicating a shift from investment settlements to cross-border trade and real-world transactions [1][6][7]. - As of June 20, 2025, the global market capitalization of stablecoins reached $261.5 billion, with USD stablecoins accounting for $253.3 billion. Projections suggest that by 2030, stablecoin market capitalization could reach between $1.6 trillion and $3.7 trillion, depending on regulatory clarity [6][7]. Group 2: Impact on International Payment and Currency Systems - The development of stablecoins, particularly USD stablecoins, is creating a new cycle of dollar circulation, reinforcing the dollar's dominance in the international monetary system. Over 95% of stablecoins are fiat-backed, with USD stablecoins making up 99% of that segment [2][11][13]. - The majority of stablecoin reserves are invested in U.S. Treasury securities, with Tether's USDT holding approximately $1.2 trillion in U.S. debt as of March 2025. This trend is expected to continue, potentially leading to stablecoin issuers holding over $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries by 2030 [12][13]. Group 3: Regulatory Challenges and Frameworks - The governance challenges and potential risks associated with stablecoins are becoming increasingly apparent. The U.S. is leading a global shift towards supportive regulatory frameworks for compliant innovation in stablecoins [2][19]. - A "five-pillar framework" for stablecoin regulation has emerged, focusing on the functional positioning of stablecoins, issuer access, operational oversight, reserve fund management, and anti-money laundering measures [20][21]. - Future regulatory considerations include the applicability of existing frameworks to decentralized operations, the need for innovative regulatory approaches leveraging new technologies, and addressing the global nature of cryptocurrency against national governance [25].