鲍威尔将再闯国会山，今晚继续“打太极”？

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not indicate any imminent interest rate cuts during his testimony, emphasizing a cautious approach to policy adjustments despite pressure from President Trump and other officials [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Powell reiterated that the Fed does not need to rush into policy changes, citing the strength of the economy as a reason to wait for clearer insights into the impact of tariffs before making decisions [1][2]. - The Fed maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.5% for the fourth consecutive meeting, reflecting a cautious stance amid economic uncertainties [1][3]. - Market expectations have shifted slightly, with traders increasing bets on at least two rate cuts by the end of the year following Powell's comments [2][3]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Powell acknowledged that tariffs could lead to upward pressure on inflation and weaken economic growth, although the exact impact remains uncertain [1][2]. - He indicated that the effects of tariffs on inflation could be either temporary or more persistent, depending on various factors [5][6]. - The Fed's decision-making will be influenced by how quickly tariff effects are transmitted to prices and whether long-term inflation expectations remain anchored [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Powell described the overall economy and labor market as solid, with inflation having significantly decreased from mid-2022 highs but still slightly above the Fed's 2% target [6]. - He emphasized the need for vigilance against potential large-scale and sustained inflation shocks, indicating that the Fed has not fully restored price stability [6].