7月降息预期暴增，机构却用这招收割

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the A-share market is heavily influenced by external news and events, leading to a situation where stock prices fluctuate based on manipulated information, creating a typical "external leverage market" [1][5] - There is a growing expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in July, with comments from Fed officials indicating support for such a move if inflation remains moderate [4][5] - The upcoming interest rate cut window is on July 30, and if significant agreements are reached in trade negotiations, the likelihood of a rate cut could increase substantially [4] Group 2 - Despite the anticipation of a rate cut, the A-share market has shown signs of growth recently, indicating that the market can rise even without immediate Fed action [5][7] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding institutional trading behaviors to avoid being misled by market movements, suggesting that data analysis is crucial for identifying genuine investment opportunities [7][10] - The concept of "institutional inventory" is highlighted as a key indicator of whether institutions are actively trading, which can help distinguish between real market strength and mere speculative movements [12][14]