6月MLF连续净投放，熨平跨季资金波动，后续有望继续加量

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 300 billion MLF operation on June 25, with a one-year term, marking the fourth consecutive month of increased MLF operations since March 2025 [1] - In June, 1.82 trillion MLF matured, resulting in a net injection of 1.18 trillion through MLF for the month [1] - The PBOC also announced a 1 trillion three-month reverse repo operation and a subsequent 400 billion six-month reverse repo operation, achieving a net injection of 200 billion through reverse repos in June [3] Group 2 - The PBOC's liquidity management has been proactive, with a total net liquidity injection of 3.18 trillion in June, including a 1 trillion reserve requirement cut released in May [3] - The chief economist of China Minsheng Bank noted that liquidity supply and demand issues are more pronounced mid-year, prompting the PBOC to maintain strong liquidity support [3][4] - As the end of the quarter approaches, the PBOC's MLF operations are aimed at stabilizing market expectations and alleviating long-term funding pressures in the banking system [3][4] Group 3 - Recent liquidity concerns have eased significantly, with overnight repo rates and one-year deposit rates declining, indicating a more stable funding environment [4] - The chief economist anticipates increased liquidity pressure in July due to tax payments and government bond issuances, estimating a liquidity gap of around 1 trillion [4] - The PBOC is expected to continue using various liquidity management tools, including reverse repos and MLF, to meet liquidity demands and signal stability [4][5] Group 4 - Looking ahead, monetary policy is expected to focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, with MLF likely to continue its increased operations [5] - The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is emphasized, with MLF and reverse repos playing a crucial role in maintaining stable liquidity levels [5] - This approach aims to enhance banks' lending capabilities and support the real economy, mitigating external economic fluctuations [5]