空袭伊朗后48小时喊停火，特朗普“变脸”背后有何经济盘算？

Core Viewpoint - The rapid shift in President Trump's stance from military action against Iran to advocating for a ceasefire is primarily driven by economic factors, particularly the rising energy prices and their impact on inflation and U.S. economic policy [2][4][10]. Energy Prices and Inflation - Following Trump's announcement of military action against Iran, international oil prices surged, with WTI crude reaching over $78 per barrel and Brent crude hitting $81.4 [1]. - The increase in oil prices poses a direct threat to U.S. inflation, as energy expenditures account for approximately 6.2% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [5]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that a 10% rise in oil prices could increase the preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, by 0.04 percentage points, while a $10 increase in oil prices could reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points [5][6]. Political Implications - Rising oil prices could lead to public dissatisfaction with Trump, potentially affecting midterm election outcomes [4][9]. - Trump's call for lower oil prices is seen as an attempt to mitigate inflationary pressures and influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [7][10]. Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Concerns over inflation have prompted Trump to urge the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, as high rates could hinder his economic policies and the proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill" [10][11]. - The Federal Reserve's recent statements indicate that any signs of rising inflation could deter them from lowering rates, complicating Trump's fiscal plans [9][12]. Strategic Economic Planning - Trump's actions to stabilize energy prices and negotiate peace in the Middle East are viewed as necessary steps to create fiscal space for his spending plans, which could add at least $3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade [10][13]. - The anticipated increase in U.S. Treasury supply may lead to rising interest rates, complicating the financing of Trump's proposed fiscal initiatives [12].