港元汇率“一路狂飙”直击弱方保证，港股红利还能行吗？

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) has recently experienced significant fluctuations, approaching the "weak side convertibility guarantee" of 7.85, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervening to sell HKD to stabilize the currency [1][3]. Currency Fluctuation and Market Impact - The HKD's rapid movement between the strong and weak side convertibility guarantees has not been seen in the past decade, indicating heightened volatility in the currency market [1]. - The intervention by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has led to an increase in HKD liquidity, resulting in a significant decline in HKD interest rates, which has widened the interest rate differential between HKD and USD, creating opportunities for carry trades [3][4]. Stock Market Performance - Despite concerns over liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, the market has shown resilience, particularly in the dividend sector. The Hang Seng Index rose by 8.8% from May to June 24, while the S&P Hong Kong Low Volatility Dividend Index increased by 10% during the same period [3][4]. - Historical analysis shows that during previous periods of HKD weakness (2018-2019 and 2022-2023), the dividend sector outperformed the overall Hang Seng Index, highlighting its defensive characteristics [4][10]. Long-term Investment Value - The S&P Hong Kong Low Volatility Dividend Index has demonstrated strong performance during periods of market volatility, with a 17.2% increase over the past 12 months compared to a mere 2.1% rise in the Hang Seng Index [10]. - The current low interest rate environment, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping from over 2.5% to 1.7%, enhances the long-term investment appeal of Hong Kong dividend stocks, particularly for investors not subject to dividend tax [10][19]. Inflow of Capital - The influx of mainland capital has significantly supported the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market, with net purchases from southbound funds reaching 676.08 billion HKD this year, nearing the total for the previous year [17][19]. - The financial sector has seen the largest increase in market value from southbound funds, with a rise of 370.1 billion HKD, indicating strong interest in dividend-paying stocks [19]. Future Outlook - The recent HKD fluctuations are viewed as a conflict between global monetary policy divergence and excess liquidity in Hong Kong. Analysts expect that the negative impact on the market from potential HKD tightening will be manageable [23]. - The overall market sentiment is improving due to strong economic fundamentals in China and ongoing inflows of southbound capital, suggesting a favorable environment for the Hong Kong stock market moving forward [23].