欧元兑美元逼近1.2大关，何时迎来拐点？

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing a strong rally, approaching the key resistance level of 1.20 against the US dollar, which has been a target for strategists and traders for several months [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts are generally optimistic about the euro's future performance, with HSBC raising its year-end forecast for the euro to USD 1.20 from USD 1.15, anticipating a general weakening of the dollar in the coming months [4]. - Danske Bank and Deutsche Bank also maintain their predictions for the euro to reach USD 1.20 within the next 12 months, reflecting a consensus among major financial institutions [4]. - The euro reached a peak of USD 1.1641, the highest intraday level since October 2021, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and softening US economic data [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - The currency market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a cumulative 59 basis points by year-end, while the European Central Bank is projected to lower rates by only 25 basis points [4]. - The Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, Philip Lane, indicated that the process of bringing inflation back to 2% is nearing completion, despite ongoing price pressures [4]. - Data from the options market shows that over 60% of the nominal trading volume in euro options this month is concentrated in bullish options, indicating strong investor confidence in the euro's upward trajectory [5]. Group 3: Technical Indicators - The risk reversal indicator, which reflects the price difference between bullish and bearish options, saw its fourth-largest increase in over three years, signaling a decisive return of bullish sentiment towards the euro [4].