【期货热点追踪】出口相关利好传闻叠加印度新一轮招标影响下，尿素领涨期市！未来能否继续追涨？

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing fluctuations driven by export-related rumors and India's new round of urea import tenders, leading to a significant increase in futures prices and varying spot prices across different regions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest trading session, the main urea futures contract rose by 2.47%, with a trading volume of 255,200 lots, an increase of 81,630 lots [1]. - The average spot price for medium-sized granular urea in Shandong is 1,754 RMB/ton, down by 10 RMB/ton from the previous working day; in Henan, the price is 1,760 RMB/ton, up by 9 RMB/ton; and in Hebei, it is 1,763 RMB/ton, down by 1 RMB/ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of June 25, the total inventory of urea in Chinese enterprises is 1,095,900 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons week-on-week, with a significant reduction of 353% [1]. - The production capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea manufacturers is 88.28%, an increase of 0.48% from the previous period, indicating a shift from a declining to an increasing trend [1]. - Daily production of urea in China exceeds 200,000 tons, with agricultural demand not showing strong support, particularly in the Northeast region where summer corn fertilization is starting [3][4]. Group 3: Import Tenders and Future Outlook - India's RCF has announced a urea import tender with an intended purchase volume of 2 million tons, split evenly between the east and west coasts, with the bid opening on July 7 and valid until July 17 [1]. - Market sentiment is currently buoyed by export rumors and the Indian tender announcement, but caution is advised as the demand for urea may not sustain the current price levels due to an oversupply situation [2].