逼近历史新高的美股面临现实检验：企业盈利能否跟上股价涨幅？

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is facing a reality check after a strong rebound, with mixed trading in futures on the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq indices amid renewed hopes for interest rate cuts and a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel [1][4] - The S&P 500 index's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 22 times, which is 35% higher than its long-term average, indicating that the index appears "expensive" across various valuation metrics [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the S&P 500's earnings need to grow by 30% over the next year to return to "fair value," and that potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could help bridge the gap between fundamentals and market prices [4][5] Group 2 - BMO Capital Markets' chief investment strategist raised the S&P 500's year-end target from 6,100 to 6,700 points, citing a reduction in tariff concerns and an expected increase in corporate guidance following the second-quarter earnings season [5] - Investors are closely monitoring the progress of the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, which has so far been maintained without new reports of attacks since President Trump's criticism of violations [6]