高盛预计上半年中国经济增速有望达到5.2%甚至更高

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects China's GDP growth rate to reach 5.2% in the first half of this year, with potential for upward revision [1] - The shift in macroeconomic growth momentum from export-driven to policy-driven domestic demand is becoming evident, particularly with policies like the trade-in program for consumer goods [1] - The Chinese government plans to issue a total of 11.86 trillion yuan in new debt this year, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year, which will support economic growth [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical uncertainties and high base effects from last year may require further macroeconomic policy adjustments in the second half to achieve the annual growth target of 5% [2] - The central bank is expected to implement another round of "double cuts" (reducing reserve requirements and interest rates) in the fourth quarter, with potential for two more rate cuts next year [2] - The consumer goods trade-in policy has already generated sales of 1.1 trillion yuan this year, nearing last year's total, indicating strong policy impact [2] Group 3 - Government consumption is projected to improve significantly this year, with an expected growth rate of 5% [3] - The central government has reserved sufficient fiscal tools to respond to potential uncertainties, allowing for support in case of a decline in durable goods consumption [3] - Investment remains a key focus for expanding domestic demand, with a framework assessing policy effectiveness based on funding, projects, and official incentives [3]