AMZN Stock To $400?

Core Insights - Amazon's stock has risen over 150% from $85 in early 2023 to around $210, with potential to double in the coming years driven by AWS and AI [2][3] AWS and AI Growth - AWS is Amazon's most profitable segment, with revenue growth of 19% year-over-year in 2024 and 17% in Q1 2025, expected to remain in the high teens [3][5] - Amazon invested approximately $75 billion in capital expenditures in 2024, with expectations to exceed $100 billion in 2025, primarily for AI infrastructure [3][4] - AWS generated $108 billion in revenue in 2024, accounting for 17% of total revenues and approximately 40% of total EBITDA [5] Advertising Revenue - Amazon's advertising business reached $56.2 billion in 2024, a 20% increase year-over-year, with Q1 2025 revenue at $13.9 billion, up 19% [9][10] - The introduction of ads on Prime Video and extensive e-commerce data enhances targeting capabilities, providing a competitive edge [10] E-commerce Stability - The online stores segment generated $247 billion in annual revenue, representing 39% of Amazon's total business, providing consistent cash flow for growth investments [11] Path to Doubling Stock Value - For Amazon's stock to double, consistent growth across AWS, advertising, and e-commerce is essential, with projections of revenues exceeding $900 billion in three years and earnings doubling to over $10 per share [12][14] - Key growth drivers include AWS growth above 20%, advertising revenue reaching $80-90 billion annually, and improved operating margins from AI investments [13][15] Investor Sentiment and Valuation - The convergence of revenue scaling and profitability improvements from AI could lead to significant investor optimism, potentially allowing for premium valuation multiples [16]