Core Viewpoint - The impending "reciprocal tariffs" set to take effect on July 9, if no trade agreement is reached between the U.S. and other countries, is causing a significant increase in the U.S. trade deficit, with potential record levels anticipated for the first five months of the year [1][2]. Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit has surged, reaching $138.3 billion in March and dropping to $61.6 billion in April, with projections indicating that the total deficit for the first five months of the year could exceed $643 billion, surpassing previous records during the pandemic [2][3]. - Countries like Vietnam and Thailand have reported record exports to the U.S., with both countries seeing a 35% year-on-year increase in exports [2]. - The trade dynamics have shifted, with Asian suppliers rushing to ship goods to the U.S. ahead of the tariff deadline, contrasting with historical patterns where shipments peak before the holiday season [2]. Negotiation Progress - Ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and major trading partners are stagnating, with India rejecting U.S. requests for lower tariffs on agricultural products due to concerns over domestic farmers and genetically modified foods [4]. - Japan and South Korea are also engaged in negotiations with the U.S., focusing on tariffs affecting key industries such as automobiles and steel [4][5]. - The EU is considering retaliatory measures if negotiations with the U.S. do not yield satisfactory results, emphasizing the importance of sovereignty in decision-making [4][5]. Economic Recession Risks - The current tariff situation poses a significant threat to the U.S. economy, with analysts predicting a 60% chance of recession this year, which could lead to a substantial decline in the S&P 500 index [6][7]. - Rising consumer delinquency rates and a decrease in housing starts indicate potential economic slowdown, with credit card delinquency reaching 3.05%, the highest since 2011 [6][7]. - The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for member economies from 3.3% to 2.6% due to trade tensions, highlighting the broader economic impact of the ongoing trade disputes [7].
“关税暂缓期”临近 美国贸易逆差飙升
Bei Jing Shang Bao·2025-06-25 15:00