北大教授姚洋预测未来中国楼市走势，若无意外，或大概率是对的

Group 1 - The Chinese real estate market has long been troubled by high housing prices, the pre-sale system, and shared area issues, with the pre-sale system being particularly criticized for leading to unfinished buildings and poor quality, causing significant economic risks for buyers and damaging market confidence [1][3] - The pre-sale system was introduced in the 1990s to stimulate development and meet housing demand, but its drawbacks have become increasingly apparent, prompting the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development to propose the concept of "selling existing houses" in early 2023, with several cities initiating pilot programs [3][5] - Many industry experts, including Peking University professor Yao Yang, believe that now is an opportune time to abolish the pre-sale system, arguing that buyers' lack of confidence presents a chance to guide the market towards healthier development [3][5] Group 2 - Opponents of abolishing the pre-sale system express concerns that it may restrict financing channels for developers, potentially leading to bankruptcies among small and medium-sized developers and a significant reduction in the supply of new homes, which could drive up housing prices [5] - However, the argument for abolishing the pre-sale system is strong, as it could effectively prevent unfinished buildings and protect buyers' rights, allowing them to inspect properties before purchase, thereby compelling developers to improve construction quality [5] - Current data from the Ministry of Housing indicates that China has over 600 million existing housing units, which is sufficient to meet the needs of its 1.4 billion population, suggesting that abolishing the pre-sale system could promote healthier market development and enhance buyers' living experiences and market confidence [5]