NIKE Earnings Preview: Can Shares Keep Running?

Core Insights - The upcoming Q2 earnings cycle is anticipated to gain momentum with major banks reporting, but several companies, including NIKE, are already releasing results, contributing to the overall Q2 performance [1] - NIKE's stock has declined 18% in 2025, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 [1] Company Performance - Initial tariff announcements negatively impacted NIKE's profitability outlook, contributing to its poor performance [3] - Analysts have shown modest positivity regarding NIKE's upcoming earnings release, with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate at $0.11, a slight increase since early April [4] - Revenue expectations for NIKE are set at $10.6 billion, reflecting a minor increase of 0.3% [4] - Despite some stability in revisions, NIKE is expected to see an 89% drop in EPS and a 15% decrease in sales, indicating ongoing demand challenges and profitability issues [5] - NIKE is scheduled to report quarterly results on June 26th, with weak demand trends post-pandemic being a significant concern [7] Financial Metrics - NIKE's gross margin has decreased by 330 basis points year-over-year, reflecting pressure from higher costs [10] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 31.3X, above its five-year median of 30.7X and higher than the Zacks Apparel industry average [12] - The PEG ratio stands at 2.1X, consistent with the five-year median, compared to the industry average of 1.1X [12] Peer Comparison - Birkenstock (BIRK) has experienced positive EPS revisions and strong demand across its product lines, contrasting with NIKE's struggles [15] - Birkenstock has increased its revenue guidance and reported double-digit sales growth across all segments, with gross margin expanding from 56.3% to 57.7% [16] - While NIKE's outlook remains negative with a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), Birkenstock holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating healthier demand trends and margin expansion [19]