和特朗普谈判，石破茂对美国使出了“拖字诀”！日本底气何在？

Core Viewpoint - A Japanese think tank's research indicates that Trump's reciprocal tariffs could lead to a 0.2% increase in Japan's GDP by 2027 due to trade transfer effects [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The Asian Economic Research Institute (IDE-JETRO) used an economic geography model (IDE-GSM) to simulate the effects of tariffs, showing a positive impact on Japan's overall GDP [3]. - The model suggests that the most affected country by the tariffs will be the United States, with a projected GDP decline of 5.2% [3]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Analysis - The automotive industry in Japan could suffer a GDP decline of 1.7% if a 25% tariff is imposed, highlighting the sector's high dependency on the U.S. market [5]. - Japan's government is adopting a "wait and see" approach in negotiations, leveraging its understanding of the U.S. and preparing a comprehensive package that includes investment and economic cooperation [5]. Group 3: Negotiation Dynamics - Japan's Prime Minister Shinzō Abe met with Trump during the G7 summit, but no agreement was reached, indicating ongoing complexities in negotiations [7]. - The next potential timeline for an agreement between Japan and the U.S. is around the end of July, prior to Japan's elections, although any agreement must consider domestic political implications [7].