Workflow
长江证券研究所联席所长邬博华:新能源与电力设备行业整体景气指数仍较好

Core Viewpoint - The overall outlook for the electric power equipment and new energy sectors remains positive, driven by domestic and international demand synergy, with expectations for continued growth in lithium batteries, wind power, energy storage, and electric power equipment [1][2]. New Energy and Electric Power Equipment - The renewable energy generation capacity in China is expected to reach a historical high in 2024, accounting for over 60% of the global new renewable energy capacity additions, with an anticipated increase of over 300 million kilowatts in wind and solar power installations this year [1]. - By 2024, cumulative wind power capacity in China is projected to reach 520 million kilowatts, while cumulative solar power capacity is expected to hit 890 million kilowatts, marking significant project completions in high-altitude solar and "fishing-light complementary" projects [1]. Lithium Battery Sector - The domestic sales of new energy passenger vehicles continue to show high growth, with a stable profitability outlook for the lithium battery sector, indicating long-term investment opportunities [2]. - The lithium battery industry has experienced a downward adjustment over the past two years, with profitability at historical lows by the end of 2024. However, demand growth is expected to reach 25% to 30% in 2025, driven by increased penetration of new energy vehicles and rising demand in emerging markets [2]. Wind Power Industry - The domestic offshore wind power installation is expected to see high demand from 2025 to 2026, with significant growth anticipated in overseas offshore wind installations in 2026 [2]. - As of early 2023, new offshore wind projects in China have added approximately 5.65 GW, a year-on-year increase of 23%, indicating a robust market for offshore wind power [2]. Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage industry is benefiting from declining costs and improved business models, leading to enhanced economic viability at the end-user level, with global demand expected to continue explosive growth in 2024 [3]. - The sector is transitioning from a low penetration phase to a rapid growth phase, with expectations for high growth in both domestic and overseas markets [3]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic sector is showing signs of recovery, with a clear bottoming out in both market sentiment and fundamentals, and potential acceleration in industry clearing due to policy support or technological advancements, with a key turning point to be observed by the end of 2025 [3]. Electric Power Equipment Industry - Despite short-term volatility influenced by export trade conditions, the overall investment in China's power grid remains on an upward trend, with downstream demand showing certainty, presenting opportunities in the digitalization of the electric power sector [3].