小摩预计美国经济将因关税出现滞胀式放缓，衰退几率为40%

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that U.S. economic growth will slow down due to tariffs, with a 40% chance of recession in the near future [1] Economic Outlook - The report indicates that U.S. GDP growth rate for 2025 is expected to be 1.3%, down from the earlier forecast of 2% [1] - The impact of tariff increases is cited as the reason for the downward revision of this year's GDP growth expectations [1] Currency and Monetary Policy - Morgan Stanley is bearish on the U.S. dollar, attributing this to the slowdown in U.S. economic growth [1] - The firm anticipates that policies supporting growth outside the U.S. will boost other currencies, including those of emerging markets [1] - A forecast of a 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected between December and spring 2026 [1] - If a recession or a more significant economic slowdown occurs, a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle may be triggered [1] Stock Market Perspective - Despite the uncertainties in policy, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market, citing the resilience of consumers and the economy [1]