中国去年进口中东原油2.4亿吨！霍尔木兹海峡遭封，受影响最大？

Core Viewpoint - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could lead to significant disruptions in global oil supply, causing oil prices to surge and impacting economies worldwide [2][4][5]. Geopolitical Impact - The attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has heightened tensions in the Middle East, with global attention on Iran's possible retaliation against U.S. military bases [2]. - Iran's parliament has suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for one-third of the world's oil shipments, which could severely disrupt the global oil supply chain [2]. Economic Consequences - If the Strait is closed, oil prices could rise to $130 per barrel, significantly impacting countries like China, which imports 553 million tons of crude oil annually, costing approximately 2.3 trillion yuan (about $325.2 billion) [5][6]. - The potential increase in oil prices would lead to higher domestic prices in the U.S., putting pressure on the economy and possibly affecting government policies [5]. Affected Countries - Israel is expected to be minimally affected due to its reliance on non-maritime oil supplies and strong economic resilience [4]. - China, Japan, South Korea, and India are among the countries that would face significant economic losses and supply chain disruptions if the Strait is closed [8]. - Middle Eastern oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE would oppose the closure, as it would hinder their ability to profit from oil sales despite potential price increases [8][10]. Strategic Considerations - Iran's decision to close the Strait may backfire, as it heavily relies on oil exports for revenue, and such a move could lead to military intervention by the U.S. to reopen the Strait [10][12]. - The analysis suggests that the closure of the Strait would be detrimental to nearly all countries involved, both oil producers and consumers, with China being particularly vulnerable due to its dependence on maritime oil transport [10][12].