黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.6.26）

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical developments, particularly the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, have reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, although uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations still provide some support for gold prices [3]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Geopolitical Factors: The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has eased tensions in the Middle East, diminishing gold's safe-haven appeal. However, uncertainties regarding U.S.-Iran talks and potential conflicts continue to support gold prices [3]. - Federal Reserve Policy and Economic Data: Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed caution regarding tariffs and inflation, with a high probability of a rate cut in September. The U.S. dollar has weakened against the euro but strengthened against the yen, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have slightly declined [4]. - U.S. Economic Weakness and Gold's Safe-Haven Role: The U.S. housing market is showing signs of weakness, with new home sales down 13.7% in May, which may enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Daily Level: After a significant drop, gold prices showed a slight recovery, closing with a small gain. Key resistance levels are at the 5-day moving average around 3347 and the 10-day moving average at 3370, while support levels are at 3290 and 3283 [6]. - Four-Hour Level: The market is likely in a corrective phase after a decline from 3452 to 3295. Key resistance levels to watch are 3347 and 3359, while support levels are at 3312/3311 and 3295 [8]. Group 3: Upcoming Events - Key economic data and events to watch include U.S. initial jobless claims, first-quarter GDP final value, and core PCE price index, all scheduled for release at 20:30 [5][10].