菜粕不具备持续走高基础

Core Viewpoint - The market for rapeseed meal is under pressure due to ample supply and stable demand, making it difficult for prices to sustain upward momentum before the weather trading phase for U.S. soybeans begins [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The increase in imported soybeans has led to a normalization of customs clearance and unloading, resulting in abundant raw materials for coastal oil mills and a rise in operating rates, which has expanded soybean meal production [2] - As of June 20, 2025, the physical inventory days of soybean meal for domestic feed enterprises reached 7.74 days, an increase of 0.91 days (11.75%) from the previous week and 4.08% higher than the same period last year, marking the highest level in three years [2] - The current high inventory levels of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, along with the potential for increased market circulation of previously imported rapeseed meal, may exert downward pressure on domestic prices [2] Group 2: Demand Challenges - The trade friction between China and Canada has led to a reduction in imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal, narrowing the price gap between rapeseed meal and soybean meal, thus diminishing the cost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal [3] - The current harvest of domestic wheat, which is competitively priced compared to corn, is prompting some feed mills to substitute wheat for corn, further reducing the demand for relatively expensive soybean meal [3] Group 3: Market Influences - The "seesaw" effect is evident as U.S. biodiesel policies have driven up soybean oil futures, which in turn has influenced the prices of palm oil and rapeseed oil, potentially suppressing rapeseed meal prices [4] - With the completion of canola planting in Canada and favorable growth conditions for U.S. soybeans, the likelihood of weather-related price fluctuations in the short term is low [4] - As trade relations between China and the U.S. and Canada improve, the normalization of soybean and rapeseed imports is expected, maintaining a backdrop of ample supply for meal products [4]