Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is not recovering, despite some positive trends observed earlier this year. Recent months have shown a downward trend again, indicating that the market is still in a phase of adjustment [1][3]. Policy and Economic Support - The government has accelerated the implementation of various stabilization policies for the real estate market, which are aimed at restoring market confidence and improving supply-demand relationships. However, achieving a stable market will require ongoing efforts [3]. - On June 24, the People's Bank of China and six other departments released guidelines to support consumption, which includes 19 key measures aimed at bolstering macroeconomic financial foundations and promoting healthy economic development [3]. Market Predictions - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the real estate market's stabilization will occur in three phases: 1. Transaction volume is expected to stabilize by 2025 due to continuous market support policies [6]. 2. Housing prices are anticipated to stabilize in 2026 as supply and demand rebalance [6]. 3. Investment recovery is projected for after 2026, leading to a new cycle of growth in the real estate market [6]. City-Level Analysis - First-tier cities are expected to stabilize by the end of 2025 due to strong demand and accelerated urban renewal projects [7]. - Strong second-tier cities, such as Hangzhou and Chengdu, are predicted to stabilize between 2026 and 2027, while third and fourth-tier cities may not stabilize until 2027 or later due to prolonged inventory cycles and population outflows [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The overall recovery of the real estate market in China is expected to be challenging, as demographic factors and urbanization rates suggest that a return to previous levels is unlikely. However, there may still be structural opportunities in core urban areas [8].
央行19条释放重要利好信号，中金预测：楼市有望明年迎拐点