CHINA RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION(1186.HK)：FACING THE SAME PRESSURE AS CRG

Core Viewpoint - China Railway Construction Co. (CRCC) reported a decline in sales and net profit for 2024, with expectations for modest recovery in 2025, maintaining a BUY rating with a target price of HK$6.69, indicating a 23% upside [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, CRCC's sales and net profit decreased by 6.2% and 14.9% year-on-year (YoY) respectively, while in the first quarter of 2025, sales and net profit further declined by 6.6% and 14.5% YoY [1]. - The gross margin remained stable at 9.9% in 2024, compared to 10% in 2023 [1]. - Finance costs surged by 70.5% YoY in 2024, primarily due to delays in cash collection from local governments [1]. - Operating cash flow was negative at RMB31 billion in 2024, with a 29.6% YoY increase in accounts receivables and a 50.1% YoY increase in interest-bearing debt [1]. Future Outlook - CRCC aims to achieve positive operating cash flow in 2025 and maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of 18% [3]. - New orders are expected to grow by 2% YoY in 2025, despite a 7.8% YoY decline in 2024 [3]. - The company forecasts a 3% YoY increase in sales and a 6.1% YoY rise in net profit for 2025 [3]. Industry Context - Local governments face fiscal challenges, impacting infrastructure investments, with only tier-one and some strong tier-two cities continuing to invest [2]. - Leading contractors are gaining market share at the expense of private-run contractors and are exploring overseas markets [2].