KCM Trade分析师Tim Waterer汇评：停火致油价、美元和黄金下跌

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, have significantly influenced financial markets, leading to fluctuations in oil prices, the US dollar, and gold, with recent developments indicating a temporary ceasefire that has caused a pullback in these assets [1][3][5][7] Oil Market - Oil prices have shown volatility, with a peak near $78 per barrel before retreating to approximately $65 as traders reassess the likelihood of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz [3] - The potential for renewed conflict could lead to another spike in oil prices, indicating that future price movements may be driven more by news than technical factors [3] Currency Market - The US dollar index (DXY) rose to 99 points amid conflict but fell back to 98 points following ceasefire news, with support at 97.65 and resistance at 98.40 [5] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish stance on interest rates has not significantly bolstered the dollar, but renewed tensions in the Middle East could lead to a resurgence in dollar strength [5] Gold Market - Gold prices have come under pressure due to reduced safe-haven demand following the ceasefire, with current prices around $3323 and key support levels at $3290 and $3260 [7] - The potential for gold to rebound exists if geopolitical tensions escalate again, although the decline in gold prices appears limited due to ongoing uncertainties in other areas such as tariffs [7] Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data, including GDP growth expected at -0.2% for the first quarter, will be closely monitored, alongside Powell's testimony, which may influence market sentiment [7]