dbg盾博:四年来“最陡”！美债市场持续消化降息预期……

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities is closely linked to disappointing housing market data, which has intensified expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - All maturities of U.S. Treasury yields experienced a slight decline, with the 2-year yield dropping by 4.02 basis points to 3.7786%, the 5-year yield down by 1.59 basis points to 3.845%, the 10-year yield down by 0.59 basis points to 4.2906%, and the 30-year yield down by 0.31 basis points to 4.8311% [3]. - The difference between the 30-year and 5-year Treasury yields is approaching 100 basis points, the highest level since 2021, while the 10-year and 2-year yield spread has reached 51.2 basis points, indicating significant economic expectations [3]. Group 2: Market Expectations for Rate Cuts - The discussion around potential interest rate cuts has gained momentum following comments from Federal Reserve officials, with predictions suggesting a 25% chance of a rate cut in July and a 90% chance in September [4]. - The recent housing market data, showing a 13.7% month-over-month decline in new home sales to an annualized rate of 623,000 units, has heightened concerns about economic downturn risks, further reinforcing rate cut expectations [4]. Group 3: Future Market Dynamics - Upcoming speeches from several Federal Reserve officials are anticipated to provide new policy insights, while key economic data releases, including the first quarter GDP final value and weekly jobless claims, are expected to influence market direction [5]. - The market remains uncertain, with expectations that short-term yields may continue to decline, while long-term yields may not follow suit, suggesting a potential steepening of the yield curve [5].