盐津铺子高增长能否持续？营收增速明显收窄 毛利率持续下滑资本开支蚕食现金流

Core Viewpoint - The leisure food industry has faced overall poor performance in recent years, with weak demand, channel changes, and intense competition being the main reasons. However, Salted Fish has managed to achieve sustained high growth by capitalizing on the channel transformation trend, shifting sales from direct supermarkets to e-commerce, bulk snack stores, and distributor channels [1][2]. Group 1: Company Growth Path - Salted Fish has transitioned from a direct supermarket model, where over 53% of its revenue came from this channel in 2017, to a diversified approach that includes e-commerce and bulk snack stores [2][3]. - The company's revenue from e-commerce has increased from 6.56% to 21.86%, while the revenue from bulk snack stores reached approximately 21% in 2023 [3]. - Salted Fish's revenue grew from 1.959 billion to 5.304 billion, showcasing its ability to leverage new channels for growth [3]. Group 2: Product Strategy - The introduction of popular products like quail eggs and "Big Demon" vegetarian tripe has significantly contributed to growth, with quail egg sales increasing by 81.87% to 580 million in 2024 [4]. - The company has successfully entered new retail channels, such as membership stores, which have helped boost sales [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, Salted Fish achieved a revenue of 5.304 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.89%, although the growth rate has narrowed by 13 percentage points compared to the previous year [6]. - The gross margin has declined from over 43% in 2020 to 30.69% in 2024, with a further drop to 28.47% in Q1 2025, primarily due to changes in sales channels and increased competition [6][7]. - The company has managed to maintain stable net profit margins by significantly reducing expense ratios, with sales expense ratio dropping from 24% in 2020 to 12.5% in 2024 [6]. Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Asset Management - Salted Fish operates a heavy asset model with significant capital expenditures, having a net cash outflow of 2.538 billion from investment activities from 2019 to Q1 2025 [7]. - As of 2024, fixed assets reached 1.467 billion, with total assets allocated to fixed and construction in progress accounting for 47% of total assets [7].