Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [4][35] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a steady expansion in domestic demand, with a 2.8% year-on-year growth in social retail sales for January and February 2026, indicating a recovery in consumer confidence and spending [4][35] - The report highlights that the current valuation of the consumption sector is at historically low levels, reflecting market expectations. With the implementation of more consumer-promoting policies, the sector is expected to see valuation recovery [4][35] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with good growth potential and low valuations within the sector [4][35] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - From March 9 to March 20, 2026, the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index had a slight increase of 0.09%, ranking 6th among Shenwan's primary industries. The sub-industry performance varied, with meat products (+2.11%) and liquor (+1.12%) showing positive growth, while snacks (-5.59%) and prepared foods (-8.47%) faced declines [4][34] Industry News - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a significant impact from the extended Spring Festival holiday on domestic demand, with a notable increase in consumer confidence and retail sales growth [27][35] - The report mentions the trend of younger consumers (ages 18-30) driving the growth of lower-priced liquor, with 43% of liquor sales being below 300 yuan [28][30] Key Company Announcements - Wanchen Group reported a revenue of 51.459 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59.17%, with a significant expansion in its store network [37] - Jinhuijiu reported a revenue of 2.918 billion yuan for 2025, a decline of 3.4%, indicating challenges in the competitive liquor market [36] Focus on Key Companies - The report emphasizes the importance of companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye in the high-end liquor segment, suggesting they are resilient amid market adjustments [36][37] - It also highlights the potential in the dairy sector, particularly for companies like Yili and New Dairy, which may benefit from favorable cycles in raw milk and beef [37]

证券研究报告 食品饮料 报告日期：2026 年 03 月 23 日 1-2 月社零总额同比增长 2.8%，国内需求稳步扩大 ——食品饮料行业双周报 最近一年走势 分析师：王芳 执业证书编号：S0230520050001 邮箱：wangf@hlzq.com 《茅台发布《市场化运营方案》，大众品 关注细分板块龙头 —食品饮料行业观 点更新报告》2026.01.22 《低位蓄能，向新破局—食品饮料行业 2026 年度投资策略报告》2025.12.28 《白酒筑底，关注餐饮链复苏—食品饮 料行业周报》2025.12.02 华龙证券研究所 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 投资评级：推荐（维持） 2026 年 03 月 09 日-03 月 20 日，申万食品饮料指数涨跌幅为 +0.09%，在申万一级行业中排名第 6 位，全部子行业涨跌幅分别 为，肉制品（+2.11%）、白酒（+1.12%）、调味品（+0.03%）、啤 酒（-0.38%）、乳品（-1.43%）、保健品（-2.65%）、软饮料（-3.21%）、 零食（-5.59%）、其他酒类（-6.02%）、烘焙食品（-6.46%）、预加 工食品（-8.47%）、熟食（-1 ...

1-2 月社零总额同比增长 2.8%，国内需求稳步扩大 ——食品饮料行业双周报 最近一年走势 分析师：王芳 执业证书编号：S0230520050001 邮箱：wangf@hlzq.com 《茅台发布《市场化运营方案》，大众品 关注细分板块龙头 —食品饮料行业观 点更新报告》2026.01.22 《低位蓄能，向新破局—食品饮料行业 2026 年度投资策略报告》2025.12.28 《白酒筑底，关注餐饮链复苏—食品饮 料行业周报》2025.12.02 华龙证券研究所 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 证券研究报告 食品饮料 报告日期：2026 年 03 月 23 日 请认真阅读文后免责条款 投资评级：推荐（维持） 2026 年 03 月 09 日-03 月 20 日，申万食品饮料指数涨跌幅为 +0.09%，在申万一级行业中排名第 6 位，全部子行业涨跌幅分别 为，肉制品（+2.11%）、白酒（+1.12%）、调味品（+0.03%）、啤 酒（-0.38%）、乳品（-1.43%）、保健品（-2.65%）、软饮料（-3.21%）、 零食（-5.59%）、其他酒类（-6.02%）、烘焙食品（-6.46%）、预加 工食品（- ...

白酒：酒企自 25Q3 起业绩加速出清、步入显性"去库存"阶段，因此酒企业绩出清已在市场预期内，预计 25Q4+26Q1 上市酒企整体会延续 25Q3 相似的出清斜率，26H2 低基数下或步入表观企稳阶段。其中，我们预计两类酒企 26Q1 业绩 已有望提前企稳：1）出清较早、出清斜率较高的二线酒企，如舍得酒业等；2）具备强势α禀赋的酒企，如贵州茅台。 我们看好当前白酒板块配置价值、低预期下胜率可观，尤其是在市场风偏受外部风险事件影响有所波动的窗口期。预 期先行、节后即使淡季亦具备自上而下催化，从复盘来看 PPI、M1 等对白酒需求侧具备前瞻信号意义。伴随"反内卷" 政策持续落地、企业 ROE 有望改善，并传导至企业端招待等支出提升、居民收入预期改善，行业拐点将逐步临近。 配置方向建议：1）品牌力突出、护城河深厚的高端酒（贵州茅台、五粮液），渠道势能仍处于上行期的山西汾酒，受 益于大众需求强韧性&乡镇消费提质升级趋势的稳健区域龙头。2）顺周期潜在催化的弹性标的（如泛全国化名酒古井 贡酒、泸州老窖），有新产品、新渠道、新范式催化的弹性酒企（如珍酒李渡、舍得酒业、酒鬼酒等）。 啤酒：啤酒的需求场景偏大众化、目前餐饮 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sales growth has accelerated, with a focus on feedback from the Spring Sugar Festival. The report suggests that the overall rhythm of the liquor industry is expected to improve on a month-on-month basis, with key recommendations including leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and others focusing on supply clearance [1][2] - The beer sector is witnessing a recovery, with a notable increase in beer production and the launch of new products, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [3] - The food sector shows a recovery in retail sales, particularly in the restaurant segment, which is expected to drive opportunities in related supply chains [4][7] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Jinhuijiu reported a revenue of 2.918 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, while Shide Jiuye reported a revenue of 4.42 billion yuan, down 17.5% year-on-year. The report highlights a significant divergence in performance among liquor companies, with Kweichow Moutai leading the recovery through reforms [2] - Jinhuijiu's product structure upgrade is notable, with high-end products (above 300 yuan) increasing by 25.21% year-on-year, while low-end products (below 100 yuan) decreased by 36.88% [2] Beer and Beverage Sector - In the beer segment, the cumulative production of major enterprises reached 5.797 million kiloliters in January-February 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5%. The launch of the new Yanjing A10 product is expected to enhance market presence [3] - The beverage sector is characterized by intense competition, with companies launching new products to capture market share. Notable new releases include flavored waters and teas targeting specific consumer scenarios [3] Food Sector - Retail sales in the food sector increased by 2.8% year-on-year in January-February 2026, with restaurant income growing by 4.8%. This growth is attributed to the recovery of consumer spending and seasonal factors [4][7] - Wanchen Group reported a record high net profit margin of 5.7% in Q4 2025, indicating strong profitability and market expansion potential [7]

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|食品饮料 [Tab le_ Grad e] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 当前位置如何看盐津铺子？ [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 风险提示：宏观经济不及预期；消费力恢复不及预期；食品安全问题。 [相对市场表现 Table_PicQuote] [分析师： Table_Author]符蓉 SAC 执证号：S0260523120002 SFC CE No. BWC944 021-38003552 furong@gf.com.cn 分析师： 胡慧 SAC 执证号：S0260524020002 huhui@gf.com.cn 分析师： 周源 SAC 执证号：S0260525040003 fzzhouyuan@gf.com.cn -14% -6% 1% 9% 16% 24% 03/25 06/25 08/25 10/25 01/26 03/26 食品饮料 沪深300 请注意，胡慧,周源并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的 注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 食品饮料行业:股息率视角看 | 2026-03-15 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% in February 2026, marking the highest growth since January 2023. This recovery is expected to benefit companies with strong pricing power in the food and beverage sector [2][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that can effectively pass on costs to consumers, particularly in the condiment and restaurant supply chain sectors, as the industry transitions from a cost dividend phase to an initial stage of price increases [3][40] Summary by Sections CPI and Economic Recovery - The CPI has rebounded, indicating a shift towards moderate inflation, with the government targeting a CPI growth of around 2% for 2026. This is supported by fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price increases [6][15] - The service sector has become a key driver of growth, with significant increases in service prices contributing to the overall CPI rise [20][23] CPI-PPI Dynamics - The report discusses the narrowing of the CPI-PPI (Producer Price Index) gap, which is currently at 2.2 percentage points. This gap indicates that consumer prices are rising faster than production costs, benefiting companies with strong pricing power [28][30] - The report notes that the PPI has shown signs of improvement, with a year-on-year decline of 0.9% in February 2026, suggesting a stabilization in raw material prices [27][29] Cost Transmission and Pricing Power - The report identifies key raw materials that constitute 65%-85% of the operating costs for leading companies in the food and beverage sector, including soybeans, sugar, and dairy products. The ability to manage these costs effectively will be crucial for maintaining profitability [41][44] - Companies in the condiment and restaurant supply chain are highlighted as having strong pricing power, with expectations for a new round of price increases due to rising costs and improved demand conditions [3][40] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong channel and product capabilities, clear price increase expectations, and high dividend attributes, such as Haidilao, Anjoy Foods, and Mengniu Dairy [3][40] - It also suggests investing in leading beer companies and high-growth regional leaders, as well as companies in the dairy and snack sectors that possess category and channel advantages [3][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the food and beverage industry, indicating a strong performance relative to market benchmarks [9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of upstream supply chain dynamics, highlighting that the core logic of performance in the upstream sector revolves around "cost" and "supply-demand" factors, exhibiting clear cyclical characteristics [9]. - It identifies two main drivers for the current uptrend in the upstream food and beverage sector: the rising prices of bulk agricultural products and the ability of companies to directly pass on costs to consumers [9]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments based on geographical and supply-demand logic, with a focus on corn and soybean chains due to their strong price increase expectations [9]. Summary by Sections Upstream Investment Focus - Recommended upstream investment targets include: 1. Agricultural processing: COFCO Technology (000930), Crown Agricultural (600251), Andeli (605198), Jinlongyu (300999), and Zunming (003030) [4]. 2. Food raw material suppliers: Huakang (605077), Morning Light Bio (300138), and Fufeng Group (00546) [4]. 3. Livestock: Recommended Yuran Livestock (09858) and Modern Animal Husbandry (01117) [4]. Downstream Investment Focus - Recommended downstream investment targets include: 1. Baijiu: Shanxi Fenjiu (600809), Kweichow Moutai (600519), Jinshiyuan (603369), and Shede Liquor (600702) [4]. 2. Catering supply chain: Yihai International (01579) and Qianwei Central Kitchen (001215) [4]. 3. Snack foods: Recommended Yanjinpuzi (002847), Qiaqia Food (002557), and Miaokelando (600882) [4]. 4. Health products: Focus on valuation, with related targets including Minsheng Health (301507) and H&H International Holdings (01112) [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the food and beverage industry, highlighting strategic opportunities during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes two major directions for investment: the focus on health food due to the increase in life expectancy and the encouragement of new business models and channels [5][6]. - The anticipated increase in average life expectancy to 80 years by 2030 is expected to shift health management from a disease-centered approach to a health-centered one, creating new demand for health foods [8][9]. - The report identifies community-oriented value-for-money formats and new retail supermarkets as key areas for growth, with companies like Mingming Hen Mang and Guoquan expanding their store numbers [12][11]. Summary by Sections Section 1: "14th Five-Year Plan" Focus on Consumption - The report outlines the goal of increasing average life expectancy and the shift towards proactive health management, which is expected to drive demand for health foods [8]. - It highlights the emergence of personalized health food demands, including emotional relief, weight management, and sleep management, as well as the trend towards lighter food forms like snack bars and grain powders [9]. Section 2: Encouragement of New Business Models - The report discusses the encouragement of high-quality development in wholesale and retail, as well as the expansion of community-based services and convenience living circles [11]. - It notes the rapid expansion of community-oriented value-for-money formats and new retail supermarkets, which are expected to continue thriving [12]. - The report also mentions the potential benefits for upstream supply chain companies due to category expansion and the development of private label products by downstream stores [12]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality health food categories that are expected to experience structural growth, as well as efficient and high-experience downstream channels that will continue to thrive [6]. - Key companies to watch include Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and various others in both upstream and downstream sectors [16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [9] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the nature of raw material price increases, suggesting that upstream sectors in the consumer goods chain are likely to benefit from these changes. It distinguishes between price increases driven by economic factors, which can lead to sustained profitability, and those driven by geopolitical factors, which may have a more limited impact [9] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the upstream segments of the food and beverage industry, particularly in agricultural processing and food raw material suppliers, while also highlighting the need for companies to demonstrate profit recovery or elasticity in response to rising raw material prices [9] - The report suggests a focus on the restaurant supply chain and the liquor sector, indicating that the liquor industry is approaching a turning point, with expectations for performance recovery [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Upstream Main Line - Agricultural processing is highlighted, with recommendations for companies such as COFCO Sugar (600737, Buy) and Yurun Agriculture (09858, Buy) [4] - Food raw material suppliers are also emphasized, with potential investments in companies like Huabao International (00336, Not Rated) and Chenguang Biotech (300138, Not Rated) [4] Downstream Main Line - In the liquor sector, companies such as Shanxi Fenjiu (600809, Buy) and Kweichow Moutai (600519, Buy) are recommended [4] - For the restaurant supply chain and beer, the report suggests monitoring performance post-valuation increase, with a recommendation for Yihai International (01579, Buy) [4] - In the beverage and snack food sectors, companies like Yanjinpuzi (002847, Buy) and Qiaqia Food (002557, Buy) are highlighted for their performance certainty [4]