证券研究报告 拐点显现、板块次第筑底、积极布局 食品饮料2026年投资策略 行业评级 强于大市|维持 蔡雪昱/杨逸文/张子健 中邮证券研究所 食品饮料团队 一 CPI/餐饮（社零）改善，消费有望逐渐回暖 四 奢侈品消费企稳复苏，关注高端消费标的圣贝拉 五 白酒压力加速释放、预计明年逐季改善，龙头进入价值区间 六 银发经济蕴藏巨大潜力，功能食品需求增长 七 原奶周期有望迎来拐点，深加工国产替代空间广阔 八 创新引领、悦己/情绪消费，持续看好宠物经济、茶饮咖啡 风险提示 2 中邮证券 1 1 发布时间：2025-11-28 目录 资料来源： iFind ，中邮证券研究所 4 ◼ 2025年10月社会消费品零售总额46291亿元，同比增长2.93%。1-10月份，社会消费品零售总额412169亿元，同比增长4.3%。 餐饮消费：10月单月餐饮收入5199亿元，同比增长3.8%；1-10月累计餐饮收入46188亿元，增长3.3%。粮油食品：10月单月 2068亿元，同比9.1%，1-10月累计19727亿元，同比10.3%。饮料类：10月单月282亿元，同比7.1%，1-10月累计2774亿元， 同比0.8%。烟酒类 ...

证券代码：002847 证券简称：盐津铺子 公告编号：2025-061 盐津铺子食品股份有限公司 2025年中期权益分派实施公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、根据《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 9 号-回购股份》的相关 规定，盐津铺子食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）回购专用证券账户持有 的公司股份 1,050 股不享有参与本次利润分配的权利。 2、因公司回购股份不享有参与本次利润分配的权利，因此，本次权益分派 实施后除权除息价格计算时，每股现金红利应以 0.3999984 元/股计算，每 10 股 现金红利为 3.999984 元。 公司总股本折算每股现金红利比例计算如下： 按总股本折算每股现金红利=实际现金分红总金额/总股本（含回购股份）， 即：109,083,451.60 元÷272,709,679 股=0.3999984 元/股； 除权除息参考价=除权除息日的前一交易日收盘价-按总股本折算每股现金 红利； 综上，2025 年中期权益分派实施后的除权除息价格按照上述原则及计算方 式执行，即本次权益分派实施后的 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 11月26日晚间，盐津铺子发布公告称，公司本次回购注销限制性股票的激励对象共5名， 回购注销的限制性股票数量合计为70，000股，注销股份占注销前总股本272，779，679股的0.03%。本 次回购价格分别为27.12元/股、25.07元/股（回购价格差异系不同期次股权激励计划对应的授予价格不 同，加之其授予日不同对应的银行利息存在一定差异所致）。本次回购的总金额为1，858，220.00元， 资金来源为自有资金。截至本公告日，上述限制性股票已在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司深圳分公司 完成回购注销手续。本次回购注销完成后，公司总股本由272，779，679股变更为272，709，679股。 ...

证券代码：002847 证券简称：盐津铺子 公告编号：2025-060 盐津铺子食品股份有限公司 关于部分限制性股票回购注销完成的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 1、盐津铺子食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）本次回购注销限制性 股票的激励对象共 5 名，回购注销的限制性股票数量合计为 70,000 股，注销股 份占注销前总股本 272,779,679 股的 0.03%。 2、本次回购价格分别为 27.12 元/股、25.07 元/股（回购价格差异系不同期 次股权激励计划对应的授予价格不同，加之其授予日不同对应的银行利息存在一 定差异所致）。 3、本次回购的总金额为 1,858,220.00 元，资金来源为自有资金。 4、截至本公告日，上述限制性股票已在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司深 圳分公司完成回购注销手续。 5、本次回购注销完成后，公司总股本由 272,779,679 股变更为 272,709,679 股。 盐津铺子食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 8 月 20 日召开 第四届董事会第十九次会议和第 ...

国投证券发布研报称，25年下半年以来，国家着重强调消费在经济增长中的重要地位，26年消费基本面 有望筑底企稳，食品饮料行业正迎来重要的布局时点。具体来看，酒企报表大幅度出清，供需矛盾缓 解，股价有望领先基本面修复；乳制品行业迎来原奶周期反转关键窗口；软饮料领域功能饮料与包装水 格局变化带来新机遇；零食板块则延续渠道与品类双轮驱动。行业在政策支持与基本面筑底背景下， 2026年有望实现业绩与估值的双重修复。 国投证券主要观点如下： 白酒：周期底部渐明，关注左侧布局机会 乳制品：布局26年原奶周期反转，关注乳制品产业链报表利润弹性 当前板块处于低预期、低持仓、低估值状态，近两个季度白酒报表快速出清，行业供需矛盾缓解，政商 务消费已经大幅下降，居民消费有望逐步复苏，行业基本面持续低于预期的尾部风险不大。复盘历史， 该行认为经济周期和饮酒政策带来的波动是暂时的，白酒商业模式仍然优异，一旦经济预期有所好转， 板块估值有望快速修复。展望2026年，"反内卷"等政策下通胀有望温和回升，有利于白酒行业逐步企稳 复苏，建议加大对白酒板块关注，标的上以茅五泸汾为主。 啤酒：中高端大单品势能延续，成本维持低位 啤酒板块26年仍将以 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, highlighting several key companies as investment opportunities [3][4]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing internal rotation in new consumption and improvement at the bottom of traditional consumption. The overall performance in 2025 was weak, primarily due to the adjustment in the liquor sector, but the long-term recovery trend for mass consumer goods remains intact [3][8]. - For 2026, structural opportunities are expected to continue, with new consumption showing internal rotation and traditional consumption gradually recovering from the bottom [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2025, the food and beverage sector's revenue grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, while profits fell by 14.6%, underperforming compared to the previous year. The industry index ranked last among 31 sub-industries with a decline of 4.8% [8][11]. - The adjustment in the liquor sector is identified as the main factor for the overall weak performance, while the recovery trend for mass consumer goods is expected to persist [8][11]. Soft Drinks - The beverage industry is projected to benefit from a rebound in travel demand in 2026, with a revenue increase of 6.2% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [42][45]. - Cost advantages from declining prices of raw materials like sugar and PET are expected to continue, enhancing profit margins for beverage companies [45][49]. Snacks - The konjac snack sector is experiencing high growth, with companies like Salted Fish and Wei Long achieving significant revenue increases in 2025 [66][67]. - The competitive landscape for konjac products is expected to remain manageable, with established brands likely to maintain their market positions despite new entrants [70][76]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a recovery in supply-demand balance, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in 2026 due to ongoing supply adjustments [38][39]. - Policies promoting consumption are expected to benefit liquid milk and milk powder sales, driving demand improvements [38][39]. Frozen and Condiment Products - The frozen food sector is expected to see performance improvements as competition stabilizes, with a focus on recovery in demand [38][39]. - The condiment sector is also projected to benefit from a gradual recovery in consumer demand [38][39]. Liquor - The liquor industry is still in an adjustment phase but is gradually approaching a bottoming out stage, with supply clearing expected to continue into 2026 [6][25]. - The report suggests that the long-term value of liquor stocks will become more apparent as the market stabilizes [6][25]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and Moutai in the beverage sector, as well as Wei Long and Salted Fish in the snack sector [6][8].

食品饮料行业 超配 （维持） 曙光渐近，蓄力前行 食品饮料行业 2026 年上半年投资策略 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 2025 年 11 月 24 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 资料来源：同花顺，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 投 资 策 略 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 推荐 ◼ 食品饮料行业今年1-10月跑输沪深300指数。受需求弱复苏以及禁酒 令等因素影响，食品饮料行业今年走势较弱。2025年1-10月份（截至 2025年10月31日），SW食品饮料行业指数整体下跌5.52%，跌幅在所有 申万一级行业中最大，跑输同期沪深300指数23.46个百分点。细分板 块中，所有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the food and beverage industry [3][8]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry experienced a slight revenue increase of 0.17% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, but the net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 4.58% [3][15]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in both revenue and profit, with revenues dropping by 4.75% year-on-year and net profits decreasing by 14.61% [3][15]. - The report highlights that the macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are expected to lead to a recovery in performance and valuation for the food and beverage sector [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector's overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 8309.16 billion, with a net profit of CNY 1711.64 billion [3][15]. - The third quarter alone generated revenue of CNY 2500.62 billion, with a net profit of CNY 434.96 billion [3][15]. 2. Subsector Performance 2.1 Baijiu (Chinese liquor) - The baijiu sector faced significant pressure, with revenues and net profits declining in the third quarter of 2025 [24]. - Major brands like Moutai and Fenjiu performed relatively well despite the overall downturn [24]. - The report notes a 20%-30% decline in sales during traditional festive periods, with regional variations in performance [24]. 2.2 Beer - The beer sector maintained steady demand, achieving a revenue of CNY 620.52 billion in the first three quarters, up 2.02% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 94.84 billion, up 11.82% [29]. - The third quarter saw revenues of CNY 203.20 billion, with a net profit increase of 11.30% [29]. 2.3 Snacks - The snack sector showed positive growth, with revenues and net profits increasing in the third quarter [3][29]. 2.4 Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector experienced a strong performance, particularly in the third quarter, with leading companies showing significant growth [3][29]. 2.5 Dairy Products - The dairy sector continued to face demand challenges, but there were signs of marginal improvement as raw milk prices stabilized [4][29]. 2.6 Condiments - The condiment sector is undergoing intense competition, but leading companies are outperforming the overall market [4][29]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resilient companies with strong growth potential, such as Dongpeng Beverage, Yili, and Moutai, among others [8][24].

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3938.29 points, slightly above the six-month moving average, with a change of -0.04% [1] - A total trading volume of A-shares reached 1,115.728 billion yuan today [1] - 35 A-shares have surpassed the six-month moving average, with notable stocks showing significant deviation rates [1] Summary of Key Stocks - Yaguang Technology (300123) had a price increase of 19.93% and a deviation rate of 14.34% from the six-month moving average [1] - Dongfang Ocean (002086) rose by 9.96% with a deviation rate of 7.83% [1] - Yaxing Anchor Chain (601890) increased by 10.02%, showing a deviation rate of 7.10% [1] - Other notable stocks include Chunfeng Power (603129) with a 10.00% increase and a deviation rate of 5.01% [1] - The stocks with the smallest deviation rates include China Merchants Bank, Xinda Securities, and Yanjinpuzi, which just crossed the six-month line [1] Additional Stock Performance - The trading turnover rates for the top-performing stocks varied, with Yaguang Technology at 23.03% and Dongfang Ocean at 12.92% [1] - The latest prices for the highlighted stocks were above their respective six-month moving averages, indicating positive momentum [1]

Market Overview - The leisure food sector experienced a decline of 1.9% on November 18, with Wancheng Group leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3939.81, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13080.49, down 0.92% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Wancheng Group (300972) closed at 174.91, down 3.24% with a trading volume of 13,800 [1] - Lihai Food (300973) closed at 41.91, down 3.19% with a trading volume of 29,500 [1] - Yanjinpuzi (002847) closed at 74.60, down 2.89% with a trading volume of 27,500 [1] - Maiqu'er (002719) closed at 10.05, down 2.62% with a trading volume of 82,600 [1] - Ximai Food (002956) closed at 25.20, down 2.36% with a trading volume of 44,000 [1] - Nanjiao Food (605339) closed at 19.11, down 2.25% with a trading volume of 86,000 [1] - Huangshanghuang (002695) closed at 12.51, down 2.04% with a trading volume of 50,500 [1] - ST Juewei (603517) closed at 13.96, down 1.76% with a trading volume of 85,000 [1] - Guifaxiang (002820) closed at 13.85, down 1.63% with a trading volume of 113,400 [1] - Hezhima (000716) closed at 6.47, down 1.52% with a trading volume of 201,600 [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The leisure food sector saw a net outflow of 222 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors had a net inflow of 254 million yuan [1] - The table of capital flow indicates varying levels of net inflow and outflow among individual stocks, with notable movements in stocks like Huangshanghuang and Guifaxiang [2]