Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.6% from January to October 2025, lagging behind the CSI 300 by approximately 37.2 percentage points, ranking last among primary sub-industries [4][11][25] - The snack segment has shown better performance with a growth of 32.5%, while beer, seasoning, and liquor have experienced declines of 9.7%, 6.5%, and 4.8% respectively [4][11][25] - The sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio has decreased by 10.4% compared to the end of 2024, with an expected net profit growth of 5.4% for 2025, leading to a 5.6% decline in market capitalization [4][17][20] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector has underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.6% from January to October 2025, ranking last among primary sub-industries [4][11] - The snack segment has shown better performance with a growth of 32.5%, while beer, seasoning, and liquor have experienced declines of 9.7%, 6.5%, and 4.8% respectively [4][11] - The sector's PE ratio has decreased by 10.4% compared to the end of 2024, with an expected net profit growth of 5.4% for 2025, leading to a 5.6% decline in market capitalization [4][17] Fund Holdings - In Q3 2025, the allocation of food and beverage in the overall market funds dropped to a new low of 6.4%, down from 8.0% in Q2 2025, marking the lowest level since 2020 [5][37] - The allocation in active equity funds also decreased from 5.6% in Q2 2025 to 4.1% in Q3 2025, indicating a significant reduction in food and beverage exposure [5][37] - The white liquor segment has seen a reduction in fund allocation, with companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Shede Liquor gaining more market favor due to their performance [5][42] Industry Judgment - The macroeconomic environment shows a weak recovery, with China's GDP growth at 4.8% in Q3 2025, slightly down from Q2 2025 [6][46] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reflecting a slower recovery pace, primarily due to the impact of the alcohol ban on dining consumption [6][46] - The food manufacturing sector has faced pressure, with revenue growth of only 1.5% and profit growth of 2.1% from January to September 2025, indicating a downward trend [6][52] Investment Opportunities - The food and beverage industry is expected to see a recovery from its bottom, with a focus on resilient consumer spending and improved economic activity [7][65] - The white liquor sector is nearing a left-side layout zone, suggesting gradual investment opportunities in companies like Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao [7][68] - The snack segment is recommended for investment due to its growth potential, with companies like Wei Long and Ximai Foods highlighted for their market opportunities [7][69][62]

吃喝板块今日（10月31日）逆市猛攻！反映吃喝板块整体走势的食品ETF（515710）开盘后迅速拉升， 盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到1.32%，截至收盘，涨0.99%。 成份股方面，白酒、大众品携手拉升，截至收盘，广州酒家、古井贡酒双双大涨超6%，盐津铺子、千 禾味业、迎驾贡酒等多股跟涨超5%。 展望后市，国信证券表示，白酒行业筑底信号增多，板块或进入布局阶段，建议关注业绩相对稳定，当 前产品、渠道策略带来长期更大增长空间的优质白马。 国泰海通指出，食品饮料行业以成长为主线，饮料龙头在大单品驱动下保持结构性景气，食品原料、保 健品等公司业绩有望高增或提速。白酒行业秋糖反馈平淡，延续"低预期、弱现实"状态，随着外部因素 退坡及酒企策略调整，行业或步入实质去库周期，渠道信心有望回暖。 一键配置吃喝板块核心资产，重点关注食品ETF（515710）。根据中证指数公司统计，食品ETF （515710）跟踪中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数，约6成仓位布局高端、次高端白酒龙头股，近4成仓位 兼顾饮料乳品、调味、啤酒等细分板块龙头股，前十权重股包括"茅五泸汾洋"、伊利股份、海天味业 等。场外投资者亦可通过食品ETF联接基金（A类01 ...

食品饮料 2025 年 10 月 31 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 29% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《短期关注三季报业绩，长期关注提 振内需政策—行业周报》-2025.10.26 《9 月社零增速边际回落，消费修复仍 待巩固—行业点评报告》-2025.10.21 《白酒筑底，加强布局—行业周报》 -2025.10.18 食品饮料持仓新低，优先布局白酒和成长型标的 ——行业点评报告 | 张宇光（分析师） | 张恒玮（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | zhanghengwei@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | 证书编号：S0790524010001 | 2025Q3 食品饮料仓位降至新低 从基金重仓持股情况来看（Wind 中全部市场基金，一级子行业），2025Q3 食品饮料 配置比例由 2025Q2 的 8.0%回落至 6.4%水平，环比回落 1.6pct，处于 2020 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the liquor industry, particularly the white liquor sector, is in a "supply clearing" phase, with expectations for accelerated clearing as Q3 earnings reports are released [1][2] - Leading companies in the food and beverage sector, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, have released their Q3 earnings reports, which are anticipated to reflect the industry's recovery [1] - Pacific Securities suggests that the current phase of the liquor industry shows strong similarities to the adjustment period from 2013 to 2015, indicating a potential buying opportunity [1][2] Group 2 - The valuation recovery of the liquor sector is expected to occur in two stages, with the first stage driven by improved demand and market expectations for performance and pricing [1][2] - The second stage of valuation recovery is anticipated when the supply-demand relationship improves, leading to a return of market confidence in the long-term value of liquor assets, with an expected industry PE central of 30x by Q4 2026 [2] - The current PE ratio of the National Food Index is approximately 21 times, which is lower than over 90% of the time in the past five years, indicating potential for valuation recovery [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with an updated target price of 94.72 CNY, up from the previous 91.84 CNY [4][7]. Core Insights - The company has shown a continued structural prosperity in its product lines, particularly in konjac products and egg products, which have outperformed the industry average. The optimization of channel structures has led to improved cost efficiency, contributing to a significant profit increase [12]. - The company's gross margin improved by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year to 31.6% in Q3 2025, attributed to product structure optimization and stable cost conditions. The net profit margin also increased by 3.2 percentage points to 15.6% [12]. - The company is expected to benefit from structural dividends due to its strong channel and capacity adjustment capabilities, as well as its innovative mindset. The current product reserves are robust, and the company is in a phase of increasing market share in quantitative circulation and discount channels [12]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The updated earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.96 CNY, 3.50 CNY, and 4.19 CNY, respectively, reflecting adjustments based on short-term operational conditions and external environments [4][10]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 6,055 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 14.2%. The operating profit is expected to reach 910 million CNY, with a growth rate of 26.5% [10][12]. - The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 808 million CNY in 2025, representing a growth of 26.2% [10][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.486 billion yuan in Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 232 million yuan, up 33.54% year-on-year [7] - The growth driver is expected to be the konjac product line, with significant contributions from both quantitative and snack wholesale channels [7] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.954 billion yuan, 6.926 billion yuan, and 8.010 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 828 million yuan, 984 million yuan, and 1.147 billion yuan for the same years [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is forecasted at 4.115 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 42.2%, and net profit is expected to be 506 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 67.8% [6][8] - The gross margin for Q3 was 31.63%, an increase of 1.01 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 15.57%, up 3.08 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company’s EPS is projected to grow from 1.88 yuan in 2023 to 4.21 yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios decreasing from 37.0 to 16.7 over the same period [6][8] Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a performance of -8% compared to the market index, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the consumer food sector have shown increases of 12% and 31% respectively [4]

开源证券研报指出，盐津铺子2025Q1-3实现归母净利润6.0亿元，同增22.6%；2025Q3单季度实现归母 净利润2.3亿元，同增33.5%，净利率表现亮眼。公司核心单品大魔王魔芋产品品牌力持续提升，品类景 气度延续，魔芋零食有望成为对标薯片瓜子糖巧级别的大品类休闲零食，看好公司把握品类红利，展望 未来大魔王扩展新口味，网点扩张和单店买力共同提升，延续高速增长。看好后续公司产品端持续发力 魔芋核心单品铺货和鱼豆腐果冻等其他单品，渠道端调整抖音线上费效比，线下持续拥抱量贩，提升品 牌力构建，当期股价对应PE分别为24.1、20.7、17.3倍，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][3]. Core Views - The company has achieved a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.67%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 604 million yuan, up 22.63% year-on-year [1]. - The focus on the "big single product" strategy has driven significant revenue growth, particularly in the konjac and quail egg segments, with innovative products gaining traction in the market [1][3]. - The e-commerce channel has seen a temporary decline in revenue, down 40% year-on-year in Q3, due to a strategic adjustment in product structure, but is expected to improve efficiency in brand building for big single products [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross profit margin was 31.84%, with a slight decrease of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 15.57% [2]. - The company forecasts revenue growth of 16.01%, 18.73%, and 12.88% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth of 28.70%, 22.44%, and 18.16% for the same years [3][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.02, 3.70, and 4.37 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 19, and 16 [3][10].

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a significant deviation between traditional GDP calculations and official figures, suggesting a structural transformation in the economy, moving away from traditional infrastructure and real estate investments [9][10] - The focus of future policies is expected to shift from "investment in objects" to "investment in people," emphasizing urban renewal and service industry development [10] Industry and Company Analysis - New Hope Liuhe (002001.SZ) reported a resilient performance with a 5.45% year-on-year increase in revenue to 16.642 billion yuan and a 33.37% increase in net profit to 5.321 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [20] - Cloud Map Holdings (002539.SZ) experienced a slight revenue decline of 4.73% in Q3, but the core business remains stable with a net profit of 1.64 billion yuan [23] - Kingfa Sci. & Tech. (600143.SH) achieved a 22.62% increase in revenue to 49.616 billion yuan and a 55.86% increase in net profit to 10.65 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by product structure optimization [26] - Aiwai Electronics (688798.SH) reported a 55% increase in net profit for the first three quarters, with a revenue of 2.176 billion yuan, reflecting strong performance in the consumer electronics sector [30] - The overall performance of the food industry, including companies like Sanquan Foods (002216.SZ) and Haitian Flavoring (603288.SH), shows a trend of revenue stabilization and cost control despite market challenges [8][30] Fixed Income Strategy - The convertible bond market is experiencing a significant increase in public fund holdings, with a total of 316.6 billion yuan, despite a decrease in overall market size [12][13] - The strategy suggests a focus on sectors like lithium batteries, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals for potential high returns, while advising caution in financial and consumer sectors [11][12] Commodity Market Insights - The gold market is witnessing a pivotal moment as prices approach 4400 USD/oz, indicating a challenge to the dollar's dominance and a potential shift in global reserve currency dynamics [18][19] - The fertilizer market, particularly for compound fertilizers, remains stable, although sales have been impacted by extreme weather conditions [24][25]

食品饮料/休闲食品 盐津铺子（002847.SZ） 2025 年 10 月 30 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/10/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 70.40 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 99.98/49.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 192.04 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 172.99 | | 总股本(亿股) | 2.73 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 2.46 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 95.93 | 股价走势图 -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 盐津铺子 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《收入增长稳健，利润表现较好—公 司信息更新报告》-2025.8.23 《魔芋品类空间广阔，渠道扩容持续 增长—公司信息更新报告》-2025.4.24 《收入维持高速增长，品牌力稳步提 升—公司信息更新报告》-2024.10.30 张宇光（分析师） 陈钟山（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn chenzhongshan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S07 ...