邓正红能源软实力：库存下降凸显供应端价值 原油市场脉冲式反弹、趋势性承压

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the oil market is returning to fundamentals, with a significant decrease in US crude oil inventories, highlighting supply-side value and boosting oil soft power [1][3] - As of the last trading session, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August delivery settled at $64.92 per barrel, up $0.55, a rise of 0.85%, while Brent crude oil for August delivery settled at $67.68 per barrel, up $0.54, a rise of 0.80% [1] - The US Energy Information Administration reported a decrease of 5.8 million barrels in crude oil inventories, far exceeding the market expectation of 1.3 million barrels, marking the fifth consecutive week of decline [1][3] Group 2 - The geopolitical risk premium is diminishing, with President Trump stating that tensions in the Middle East have "ended" and that the US will hold talks with Iran while maintaining pressure on Iranian oil revenues [1][3][4] - The OPEC alliance is considering increasing production again in August, with Russia expressing willingness to support this if deemed necessary, although there are internal disagreements among member countries regarding production strategies [2][4] - The current market is characterized by a "pulse rebound" in oil soft power, but overall, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to geopolitical uncertainties and OPEC's production decisions [2][4] Group 3 - The decline in inventories emphasizes the scarcity of supply, reinforcing the physical supply-demand tension in the oil market and shifting focus from geopolitical conflicts to domestic fundamentals in the US [3] - The dynamic interplay of macroeconomic disturbances, such as the expiration of tariff exemptions and potential new trade tensions, is likely to suppress oil demand expectations [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations may further limit the rebound potential of oil prices, creating additional pressure alongside the diminishing geopolitical premium [4]