银河证券: A股下半年震荡向上 聚焦四大主题投资
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-06-26 04:17

Group 1 - The world is undergoing significant changes, with globalization entering a deep adjustment phase, presenting both challenges and opportunities for China [1] - China is focusing on high-quality development through supply-side structural reforms and high-level openness, aiming to create a new dual circulation development pattern [1] - The introduction of comprehensive financial opening policies at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum marks a shift in China's capital market from "factor-based opening" to "institutional opening" [1] Group 2 - The focus of economic work has shifted to boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, moving away from reliance on investment [3] - To stimulate consumption, a comprehensive approach addressing income, wealth, and expectations is recommended, with gradual income increases for the public [3] - The implementation of extraordinary counter-cyclical policies is necessary to facilitate the transition between old and new growth drivers [3][4] Group 3 - The new supply-side reform should focus on "subtracting, reducing, adding, and multiplying" to achieve balanced economic adjustments [5] - The first step involves reducing real estate inventory, while also stabilizing the macro environment to facilitate the transition of growth drivers [4] - The second step emphasizes reducing excess capacity in competitive industries through market unification and green transformation [4] Group 4 - The A-share market is expected to show an upward trend, supported by ongoing capital market reforms and the emergence of new industries [6][7] - Key investment themes include safe assets, technological innovation, consumer spending, and mergers and acquisitions [7] Group 5 - The Hong Kong market is transitioning from a discount pricing model to potentially becoming a pricing anchor for China's core assets [8][9] - Significant changes in the fundamentals of the Hong Kong market are anticipated, with high-tech industries expected to thrive [10] - The shift from US Treasury pricing to Chinese Treasury pricing is expected to enhance the attractiveness of the Hong Kong market for investments [10]