ETO Markets 市场洞察：参议院现场火药味十足！共和党议员怒怼鲍威尔政治化美联储

Group 1: Tariff Effects - Powell indicated that the proposed tariffs by the Trump administration could lead to a "one-time increase" in prices, but the actual impact may exceed traditional economic model predictions [3] - The final scale, implementation pace, and market response to tariffs will determine the inflation transmission path, with potential for short-term price pressures to evolve into persistent risks [3] - The Federal Reserve must be vigilant about tariffs amplifying inflation pressures through multiple channels, such as increased terminal prices due to rising import costs and accelerated consumer spending in anticipation of price hikes [3] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy - In light of tariff uncertainties, the Federal Reserve's decision-making logic is becoming clearer, with Powell stating that the current tariff plan's scale far exceeds the pilot phase of 2018 [4] - Historical experience has limited reference value due to enhanced global economic interconnectedness, necessitating observation of actual tariff impacts on corporate pricing behavior and consumer responses before assessing policy response space [4] - The market's expectation of two rate cuts within the year remains uncertain, contingent on summer inflation data and trade negotiation progress [4] Group 3: Political Dynamics - Powell's cautious stance is directly related to policy divergences with the Trump administration, which continues to call for rate cuts to stimulate the economy [5] - Powell reiterated that monetary policy should be based on economic data rather than political considerations, amidst questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [5] - The initiation of the process to select Powell's successor by Trump has heightened market concerns regarding policy continuity, with Powell's term ending in May 2025 [5] Group 4: Market Impact - The interplay between tariff and monetary policies is injecting uncertainty into financial markets, particularly affecting gold prices as a safe-haven asset [7] - Gold prices may be supported by inflation expectations if tariffs drive actual inflation, while a softening economic data could accelerate easing and suppress gold price performance [7] - Investors are advised to closely monitor industry specifics related to tariff implementation, Federal Reserve officials' statements, and core PCE inflation data to capture signals of policy turning points [7]