巨富金业：美元跌至四年新低，伊朗核谈判与PCE数据成关键变量

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is around $3340 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.27% from the previous trading day, supported by a weakening US dollar index which hit a four-year low at 97.449 [1][2] - The market is focused on two main variables: the impact of the latest developments in Iran nuclear negotiations on geopolitical risk premiums, and the upcoming US May PCE inflation data on June 27, which may reshape Federal Reserve policy expectations [1][3] Group 2 - The decline of the US dollar index is driven by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's emphasis on waiting for the impact of tariffs on inflation before making interest rate decisions, which has led to a market perception of a potential rate cut this year [3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield has slightly decreased to 4.287%, reflecting growing concerns about economic slowdown, further diminishing the dollar's interest rate advantage [3] - The negative correlation between the dollar index and gold prices is particularly evident in the current environment, with gold's relative value increasing for investors holding currencies like the euro and pound [3] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding the Iran nuclear negotiations remains a significant variable in gold pricing, with skepticism about the sustainability of the ceasefire agreement announced by Trump [5][6] - The complexity of geopolitical risks is highlighted by the potential for both reduced safe-haven demand for gold due to the ceasefire and the retention of Iran's technical capabilities, which could lead to retaliatory actions [6] Group 4 - The upcoming US May PCE data is expected to show a decrease in core PCE year-on-year from 2.8% in April to 2.6%, potentially the lowest level since March 2021 [7] - If the PCE data meets or falls below expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, further weakening the dollar and boosting gold prices [7] Group 5 - From a technical perspective, gold has shown a downward trend for seven consecutive weeks, with a critical resistance level at $3355; failure to break this level may lead to further declines towards the $3300 support level [8] - Conversely, if geopolitical risks resurface or the PCE data is weak, gold prices could rebound above $3400 [8] Group 6 - Overall, while the weakening dollar provides short-term support for gold, geopolitical uncertainties and potential impacts from the PCE data limit the upside potential for gold prices [10]