STARTRADER外汇：预算削减如何扭曲美联储经济数据质量？

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns about the declining quality of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), indicating that federal budget cuts may be undermining the reliability of key economic indicators such as inflation and employment [1][3] - Powell highlighted that while current data is not yet at a "worrisome" level, the trend of reduced survey coverage by the BLS is indeed troubling, emphasizing the importance of accurate economic data for decision-making by the Fed, Congress, and businesses [1][3] Data Quality Risks - Specific signs of data quality risks have emerged, with the BLS suspending on-site data collection for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in several cities, leading to approximately 30% of May's CPI data relying on estimates, a figure three times the historical average [3] - Concerns have been raised regarding the accuracy of employment data, with initial estimates of 139,000 new non-farm jobs in May potentially being revised down to around 100,000 due to statistical omissions from small businesses affected by tariff policies [3] Budget Cuts Impact - The deep-rooted issue points to reduced federal funding, with the Trump administration's proposed budget cuts of $56 million to the BLS continuing the trend of fiscal tightening observed earlier in the year [3] - The funding shortfall has directly weakened the BLS's data collection capabilities, as the agency needs to cover 75 cities and 200 product categories to calculate the CPI, but is increasingly relying on estimation models due to a shrinking statistical network [3] Market Concerns - There are growing market concerns that distorted data may mislead the Federal Reserve's policy direction, potentially resulting in monetary decisions that do not align with the actual economic cycle if inflation is underestimated or employment market weaknesses are obscured [3]