【百利好原油专题】伊以冲突是插曲 原油上涨有压力

Group 1 - Since June, international oil prices have been rising due to improved tariff outlooks, with a significant spike of over 13% on June 13 following Israeli airstrikes on Iran, although geopolitical risk premiums quickly retracted [1][5] - The market consensus is forming around the idea that the recent Israel-Iran conflict has not impacted core oil production facilities, and the third quarter oil price trends will revert to fundamental factors, focusing on OPEC+ production challenges, demand pressures, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [1][5] Group 2 - OPEC+ has undergone a significant strategic shift, announcing a production increase of 41.1 million barrels per day in June, nearly three times the original plan, indicating a move from defending oil prices to accepting potential oversupply [3] - Despite the announced increases, actual production growth has been minimal, with Saudi Arabia's execution rate at only 6% for the planned increase in May, highlighting the challenges in implementing these production plans [3][4] Group 3 - The demand side for crude oil is facing unprecedented pressure, with global economic growth projected at only 2.7% for 2025, significantly below the historical average of 3% from 2000 to 2019 [4] - Major institutions predict that the demand increase for 2025 will be between 740,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day, which is less than half of the non-OPEC+ countries' supply increase of 1.9 million barrels per day [4] Group 4 - The geopolitical premium from the Israel-Iran conflict quickly dissipated as the core oil supply infrastructure remained intact, with OPEC+ ready to utilize 3 million barrels per day of idle capacity to stabilize the market [5][6] - Recent data shows a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories by 11.473 million barrels, indicating a potential seasonal demand increase, although the overall supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to change fundamentally in the short term [6] Group 5 - Technically, oil prices have struggled to maintain levels above $65, with multiple failed attempts to break through $78, and currently, a critical support level is at $65, with potential for greater downside if this level is breached [7]