Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are experiencing slight rebounds but remain under downward pressure, currently trading around $3,337 per ounce, following a close at $3,332.05 per ounce on June 25 [1] - The ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has reduced safe-haven demand for gold, but uncertainties surrounding US-Iran negotiations and potential conflict risks provide a support level for gold prices [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on inflation risks from tariffs may lead to a stronger dollar, which could suppress gold prices, while signals of economic slowdown reinforce expectations for rate cuts and gold's role as a safe haven [1] - Recent geopolitical events, including the ceasefire and Trump's announcement of upcoming talks with Iran, have injected new uncertainties into the gold market [1][3] Geopolitical Events - President Trump announced the rapid end of the Iran-Israel conflict, attributing it to military actions against Iranian nuclear facilities, and expressed optimism about Iran's willingness to engage diplomatically [3] - Despite the optimism, the head of the UN nuclear watchdog cautioned that Iran's technical capabilities remain intact, indicating that geopolitical risks are not fully resolved, which provides some support for gold [3] - The potential for renewed conflict remains, as both sides claim to have achieved their strategic goals, but the market is currently leaning towards a more optimistic outlook due to the ceasefire [4] Economic Data - The US Commerce Department reported a 13.7% decline in new home sales in May, marking the largest drop since June 2022, with inventory levels reaching a high not seen since October 2007 [5] - High mortgage rates and rising economic uncertainty, compounded by tariffs on imported materials, are suppressing housing demand, leading to a drop in builder confidence to a two-and-a-half-year low [5] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September are high at 85%, but the Fed's cautious approach to inflation could delay this, impacting gold prices depending on upcoming inflation data [5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices recorded a small entity close, indicating potential pressure after a significant drop, with key support levels to watch around $3,290 to $3,300 [7] - Short-term price movements suggest a challenge to the lower boundary of the previous trading range, with traders advised to monitor the $3,300 and $3,290 support levels closely [7]
金荣中国：现货黄金小幅延续隔夜反弹，但仍受下跌空间压制
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-26 07:08