供应链暗战，谁撑起了京东旅行的野心？

Core Insights - The Chinese OTA market has undergone significant changes over the past few decades, with Ctrip emerging as the leader, while Meituan, Tongcheng, Qunar, and Fliggy have settled into secondary positions [1][2] - JD.com is entering the OTA space, leveraging its existing user base and resources to challenge Ctrip, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape [1][2] - The hotel market in China is still dominated by non-chain hotels, presenting an opportunity for JD.com to capture market share by targeting smaller hotels that are sensitive to commission fees [3][4] Market Dynamics - JD.com has over 800 million users, with a significant portion being high-net-worth individuals, aligning well with the business travel needs that Ctrip caters to [2] - The 2024 hotel market is expected to see Ctrip leading, followed by Tongcheng and Meituan, with the latter two having established advantages in resource integration and brand building [2][3] - JD.com is focusing on a supply chain model rather than a traditional commission-based model, which may allow it to attract hotels that are looking to reduce dependency on OTAs [4][21] Competitive Strategies - JD.com is adopting a "rural encircling the city" strategy by initially targeting smaller, commission-sensitive hotels rather than high-end chains [4][5] - The competition between JD.com and Ctrip is not just about immediate market share but also about long-term sustainability and resource allocation [8][21] - The traditional OTA model relies heavily on commissions and advertising fees, while JD.com is exploring supply chain service fees and membership value-added services [4][21] Supply Chain Considerations - The hotel supply chain in China is complex, with significant costs associated with distribution, which JD.com aims to streamline [5][21] - In 2023, 41,800 new hotels entered the market, indicating a growing supply that JD.com can tap into, especially among smaller hotels [5][17] - The shift towards a buyer's market is evident, with average revenue per available room (RevPAR) declining, which may benefit JD.com’s zero-commission model [22] Future Outlook - The entry of JD.com into the OTA space is seen as a potential game-changer, with the possibility of reshaping the competitive landscape [7][23] - The evolving dynamics of the hotel market suggest that companies with strong supply chain capabilities, like JD.com, may gain a competitive edge [19][23] - The focus on user experience and supply chain efficiency will be critical for JD.com as it seeks to establish itself in the OTA market [21][22]