油价“过山车”，原油暴跌16%后，油价涨幅降下来，7月1日调价

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel price adjustment is set for July 1, 2025, with expectations of a price increase due to recent fluctuations in international oil prices [1] Oil Market Trends - In June, international oil prices rose significantly, reaching a peak of $78.85 per barrel for Brent crude due to escalating geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand [3] - Following a brief spike, international oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude dropping to $67.17 per barrel, marking a decline of over 16% in just three working days [3] Domestic Fuel Price Changes - Domestic fuel prices saw two increases in June, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 325 yuan and 315 yuan per ton, respectively [3] - As of June 26, 2025, the reference crude oil price indicates a potential increase in domestic fuel prices by 0.28 to 0.32 yuan per liter, with a current increase of 345 yuan per ton [3][4] - The maximum increase in fuel prices during the current adjustment cycle has decreased by 265 yuan per ton compared to earlier projections [4] Future Price Outlook - The cautious market sentiment suggests that while the price increase is expected, it may be limited to around 250 yuan per ton, with a likelihood of small upward adjustments rather than significant declines [4]