张涛：促消费要防止“内卷式”竞争固化，适时转换政策重心

Core Viewpoint - Strengthening consumption is currently the most important macro policy, with ongoing increases in policy力度 and noticeable effects [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - In addition to the 150 billion special government bonds allocated last year to support the replacement of consumer goods, an additional 300 billion has been arranged this year to further boost consumption [1] - In the first five months of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 20.32 trillion yuan, a 5% increase compared to the same period last year, with commodity retail sales at 18.04 trillion yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Consumption Trends - Over the 14 months since the implementation of the "Action Plan for Large-Scale Equipment Updates and Consumer Goods Replacement," total retail sales have increased by 6.5%, but this growth has lagged behind the steady increase in overall retail consumption [1] - The cumulative increase in consumer goods prices in the CPI from March 2023 to May 2024 is -0.6%, indicating that the low-price environment has not significantly improved [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Two main models for driving consumption are identified: - Model 1 involves merchants lowering prices to gain more orders, which can lead to unhealthy competition and a vicious cycle of low prices without stimulating new demand [2] - Model 2 focuses on innovation to create new demand, leading to improved profit expectations and a virtuous cycle of increased consumption and investment [2][4] Group 4: Key Recommendations - The key to boosting consumption lies in reversing expectations, which requires enriching policy content and timely shifting policy focus [4] - It is essential to prevent the solidification of disordered competition on the supply side and to enable companies to engage in effective innovation [4][6] - On the consumption side, efforts must be made to reverse low-price expectations and address weakening income and wealth growth expectations [4][6]