银行“大象群舞”，谁是最强标的？

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector in China has seen significant stock price increases, with major banks reaching historical highs, driven by a combination of low interest rates, strong institutional investment, and valuation convergence between A-shares and H-shares [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 25, the banking sector index has risen by 14.11% year-to-date, leading all 31 primary industries, with a market capitalization increase of 2.05 trillion yuan, equivalent to "creating two Ningde Times" [1]. - The Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) has gained nearly 25% this year, with fund shares increasing by 323%, setting new historical records [2]. Group 2: Driving Forces Behind Valuation Increase - The low interest rate environment has created a "defensive premium" for bank stocks, with the ten-year government bond yield dropping to 1.65%, making high dividend yields from banks a scarce resource [5][6]. - Insurance capital has been actively investing in bank stocks, with nine instances of shareholding increases this year, predominantly in Hong Kong bank stocks, totaling a market value of 116.94 billion yuan [7]. - There is a systematic convergence of valuations between A-shares and H-shares, with H-shares trading at an average price-to-earnings ratio of 0.55 compared to 0.67 for A-shares, creating opportunities for cross-market strategies [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Performance - The Bank AH cross-market rotation strategy aims to dynamically compare valuations between A-shares and H-shares monthly, buying the cheaper side to generate excess returns [8]. - Since 2025, the Bank AH total return index has increased by 25.18%, outperforming the CSI Bank total return index by nearly 7 percentage points [9]. - With several banks planning mid-year dividends for 2025, the "normalization of dividends" in a low interest rate environment is expected to further highlight the bond-like attributes of bank stocks [10].