DLS外汇：美联储下调杠杆率门槛 银行能否重塑美债市场的流动性？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's proposal to relax the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (ESLR) regulations aims to provide relief to large U.S. banks, potentially improving their capacity to mediate in the U.S. Treasury market, but the underlying motivations and potential costs require careful evaluation [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The Federal Reserve plans to lower capital requirements for holding companies from 5% to a range of 3.5% to 4.5%, with equivalent adjustments at the subsidiary level [1]. - This reform is seen as a response to banks' long-standing calls for regulatory changes, as the current rules do not differentiate between low-risk assets, thereby reducing the resilience of the financial intermediation system [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market has seen a rapid expansion in debt to $29 trillion, with increased trading demand, but large banks have reduced their positions due to regulatory constraints, leading to wider bid-ask spreads and increased volatility in yields [3]. - The relaxation of the ESLR is intended to address these issues, but it may also weaken the regulatory framework that ensures banks can withstand extreme market conditions [3]. Group 3: Potential Implications - There is uncertainty regarding whether the relaxation of leverage ratios will genuinely enhance market liquidity, as banks may prefer to use the released capital for stock buybacks or other high-yield assets rather than increasing their Treasury holdings [4]. - Structural issues in the Treasury market, such as persistent fiscal deficits and inefficient auction mechanisms, may not be resolved solely through regulatory relaxation [4]. - The timing of this adjustment is notable, as the Federal Reserve is currently in a high-interest-rate observation phase, and the regulatory easing may be intended to provide banks with breathing room during a transitional period [4].