还有一年半，美国网约车司机将感受Robotaxi冲击

Group 1 - The US ride-hailing market is entering a "cold war" era driven by Robotaxi, with significant threats to traditional ride-hailing companies like Uber and Lyft expected by 2027 [1] - Each 11,000 Robotaxis deployed can capture 10% of the urban-airport market share, requiring a fleet of 22,000 to impact 20% and 55,400 for 50% market share, which exceeds current supply expectations [1][16] - The penetration rate of ride-hailing in the US personal transportation market remains low at under 2%, indicating substantial room for Robotaxi expansion [2][3] Group 2 - Waymo operates over 730 vehicles in California, achieving a monthly record of 708,000 rides in March 2025, with an average of 24 rides per vehicle per day [4][8] - The average cost per ride for Waymo is estimated at $32, significantly higher than current pricing, which explains its partnerships with platforms like Uber to mitigate operational losses [8][19] - The ride-hailing trips are highly concentrated in the top 20 cities, contributing to 80% of total bookings for Uber and Lyft, with Waymo already operating in nearly half of these markets [9] Group 3 - By 2027, Robotaxi is expected to start having a slight impact on the ride-hailing market, with a projected fleet of 3,500 vehicles achieving 7.2 million rides per day [13][16] - The growth of Robotaxi is constrained by vehicle supply, with Waymo's current fleet of 1,500 vehicles being minimal compared to the 4 million drivers in the ride-hailing sector [18] - The economic viability of Robotaxi is challenged by high costs, with Waymo's vehicles costing over $200,000 each, necessitating a significant fare increase to break even [19]