欧元/美元价格预测：短期内额外涨幅看起来很可能

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair is experiencing upward momentum, nearing its annual high of approximately 1.1640, driven by geopolitical factors and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Factors - The Euro has maintained a constructive position against the Dollar, rising for the fifth consecutive day due to easing tensions in the Middle East and cautious remarks from Fed Chairman Powell during his congressional testimony [2]. - The recent optimism surrounding a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, facilitated by President Trump, has contributed to the Euro's gains, despite the agreement's fragility [3]. - Investors are cautious regarding upcoming trade developments, particularly the deadline for the suspension of U.S. tariffs on July 8, while the EU is actively pursuing trade agreements, especially with London [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve has maintained its target range at 4.25%-4.50% but has raised its unemployment and inflation forecasts due to tariff-driven pressures [4]. - There is a divergence in opinions among Fed officials regarding potential interest rate cuts, with some predicting a 50 basis point cut by year-end, while others foresee no cuts or only one cut in 2025 [4]. - In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) recently lowered its deposit facility rate to 2.00%, with President Christine Lagarde indicating that further easing depends on significant deterioration in external conditions [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The next upward target for the Euro/USD pair is the 2025 high of 1.1641, followed by the October 2021 high of 1.1692 and the milestone of 1.1700 [5]. - Temporary support levels are identified at the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) of 1.1370, with further support at the weekly low of 1.1210 and 1.1064, all preceding the 1.1000 threshold [5]. - Momentum indicators favor the Euro, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising to nearly 67, indicating upward potential, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is above 23, suggesting moderate trend strength [5].