【期货热点追踪】机构预警：工业硅、多晶硅强势拉涨仅是"死猫跳"？

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increases in polysilicon and industrial silicon are driven by supply-side production cuts, market sentiment improvements, and a temporary rebound in demand, although long-term supply-demand imbalances remain unresolved [1][4][5] Supply Side - Industrial silicon futures rose by 2.66% to 7720 CNY/ton, while polysilicon futures increased by 3.46% to 31715 CNY/ton, influenced by production cut announcements [1] - Major polysilicon producers, including Tongwei and Daqo New Energy, have agreed to self-discipline production cuts, affecting over 1.2 million tons of capacity [3] - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to remain loose, with large manufacturers planning to resume operations due to lower electricity prices in the southwest region [1][3] Demand Side - The demand for industrial silicon is primarily driven by the organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy sectors, but overall demand is showing signs of slowing down [2][4] - The organic silicon market continues to see price declines, yet companies are maintaining production to capture market share, which may positively impact industrial silicon demand [2] - In the polysilicon sector, major companies are reducing production, leading to a decrease in overall demand for industrial silicon [2][3] Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of mid-June, visible polysilicon inventory stands at 270,000 tons, with total inventory potentially reaching 400,000 to 500,000 tons, indicating significant pressure [3] - The market is experiencing a temporary rebound in polysilicon prices due to a combination of supply cuts, demand spikes from the solar installation rush, and speculative trading in the futures market [5] - Despite recent price increases, the long-term outlook for industrial silicon remains cautious due to unresolved supply-demand issues and high inventory levels [4][5]