伊以突然停火，特朗普危机正式解除，美联储或将降息？

Group 1 - The conflict between Iran and Israel, which lasted for 12 days, ended with a ceasefire on June 24, 2025, facilitated by the Trump administration, highlighting the complexities of global power dynamics [1][3] - The ceasefire agreement requires Israel to halt its "illegal invasion" while Iran will stop its retaliatory actions, with formal negotiations set to begin 24 hours after the ceasefire [3] - The conflict revealed vulnerabilities in Israel's defense systems, prompting a reassessment of the situation by the Netanyahu government as U.S. involvement shifted from military action to diplomatic mediation [3][4] Group 2 - Following the ceasefire announcement, Trump described the mediation as a significant diplomatic victory, which could reshape his international reputation and mitigate risks of U.S. involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts [4] - The Federal Reserve indicated a potential shift in monetary policy, with discussions of interest rate cuts linked to the easing of tensions in the Middle East, which could influence global economic conditions [6] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's potential rate cuts could attract international capital back to the U.S., providing a buffer for domestic economic adjustments amid geopolitical changes [6][7] Group 3 - The interplay between the Fed's monetary policy and Trump's political strategies may pose challenges for global economic stability, particularly in relation to potential trade sanctions against China [7][9] - China's economic resilience, characterized by stable supply chains and a large domestic market, positions it to better handle external pressures compared to previous years [7][9] - The evolving geopolitical landscape, including U.S. strategies in technology and trade, underscores the importance of maintaining strategic clarity and internal economic strength for countries like China [9]